Opponents of Sen. Larry Craig’s worker-amnesty legislation (the so-called Ag-jobs bill) were quick to signal victory on Tuesday after the Senate voted against attaching it as an amendment to the $81 billion Afghanistan-Iraq war supplemental funding bill. But the defeat of Ag-jobs, which would grant amnesty for up to 1 million illegal-immigrant agricultural workers and their families, is deceiving. For once, Sen. Ted Kennedy, a co-sponsor, got it right.
“I think we’ve got a very critical mass,” he said after the vote. Mr. Kennedy was referring to the 53 senators, including 15 Republicans, who voted for the amendment, which fell seven votes short of the 60 required to pass. We defer to Mr. Kennedy’s political acumen on this one point. Not only will Ag-jobs live to fight another day, but it looks as if the pro-amnesty forces in the Senate have captured the momentum.
Of the 15 Republicans who voted for the amendment, some are members of the party’s moderate-to-liberal wing — Sens. Lincoln Chafee, Chuck Hagel, Olympia Snowe and Arlen Specter. The others are generally pro-amnesty Republicans, with the possible exception of Montana’s Conrad Burns, who straddles the fence on immigration issues. Since these senators will probably not change their vote when Ag-jobs returns, anti-amnesty senators are already in the minority.
If those 45 Republicans and Democrats who voted against the amendment could be expected to do so again, then the situation might not look so bleak. But that would require the anti-amnesty Republicans to hold on to all five Democrats who voted against the amendment, as well as the Republicans. But that probably won’t be the case. Numerous pro-amnesty Republicans voted against Ag-jobs on the grounds that immigration initiatives should not be tied to a bill that funds the troops. And this is why Mr. Kennedy is so happy. He and Mr. Craig know that there are at least four other pro-amnesty Republicans (Sens. Lamar Alexander, Sam Brownback, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski), with the possibility of a few others, who could well support Ag-jobs as a separate bill. Add only some of those, along with Illinois Democratic Sens. Richard Durbin and Barack Obama, neither of whom voted on Tuesday, and the balance tips solidly in favor of amnesty.
This analysis of course leaves out the House, where amnesty opposition is more substantial. It was the House Republicans, after all, who attached Rep. James Sensenbrenner’s REAL ID bill, which would thwart illegals’ efforts to obtain driver’s licenses, as an amendment to the Afghanistan-Iraq supplemental. But REAL ID, for all its immigration provisions, is primarily regarded as a security measure, and backing for it doesn’t necessarily translate into opposition to Ag-jobs.
Given the political situation in the Senate, it will be up to the House Republican majority to block amnesty. If House Republicans remain united, there’s a chance that Ag-jobs, and whatever other pro-amnesty bill comes to the floor, won’t become law. But don’t look to the Senate for help.
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