ANNAPOLIS — Public support for Gov. Martin O’Malley has dropped sharply since he took office in January, according to a statewide poll released yesterday.
Mr. O’Malley’s approval rating dropped six points, to 46 percent, and his disapproval rating increased 10 points, to 31 percent, since the last statewide poll conducted in March by Gonzales Research and Marketing.
The poll results were released on the same day Mr. O’Malley outlined his “doomsday budget” proposal, which includes $1.7 billion in cuts to education, health care and other state programs.
Mr. O’Malley said he would be forced to introduce the budget, which he also calls his “cost-of-delay” budget proposal, if lawmakers do not pass the tax increases and gambling initiative he wants during the special General Assembly session that starts Monday.
“This is what happens if we fail to reach consensus,” he said yesterday. “I don’t have an expectation of failure, but I do have a responsibility to lay out the options [in the most] forthright way as I possibly can.”
A spokesman for Mr. O’Malley, a Democrat, said the governor was not worried about his six-point drop in the polls.
“Most of those numbers break along party lines,” said spokesman Rick Abbruzzese, noting an increase in Republicans who disapprove of Mr. O’Malley’s leadership but steady support from Democrats. “Leaders lead even when they have to make difficult decisions.”
Public support for legalizing slot machines reached 59 percent, its highest point in five years. And 84 percent of voters think the measure should be decided by referendum next year, according to the poll.
The poll surveyed 839 Maryland voters earlier this month, and includes a 3.5 percentage- point margin of error.
The budget shortfall has long been predicted by nonpartisan budget analysts, but Democrats and Republicans are split over how to fix the problem. Republicans flatly oppose tax increases and support broad spending cuts.
Mr. O’Malley said he would have to cut $866 million in local aid, $800 million from state agencies and about $88 million in Program Open Space funds in his cost-of-delay budget to cover the shortfall. But legislative leaders expect many of his tax increases to be approved during the special session — including the sales-tax increase that will make up the bulk of the shortfall — negating Mr. O’Malley’s “doomsday” scenario.
Republican senators criticized Mr. O’Malley’s budget proposal as a scare tactic.
“He’s trying to scare people into having a consensus and that’s not going to work,” said Sen. Allan H. Kittleman, Howard Republican. “It’s the new movie ’A Nightmare on State Circle,’ and Governor O’Malley plays the lead character. If you go to sleep you’re going to get your taxes raised. So people in Maryland have to be vigilant. They have to stay awake and they have to fight hard.”
Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., a Republican, faced frequent shortfalls during his term, from 2003 to 2007, but fixed them with transfers from other state funds and increases in fees.
The political theatrics yesterday came as Mr. O’Malley continues seeking elusive consensus among lawmakers for his budget package.
House Speaker Michael E. Busch, Anne Arundel Democrat, and Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller Jr., Southern Maryland Democrat, cautioned this week that Mr. O’Malley’s tax plan would face some changes from lawmakers in the Democrat-controlled Assembly. And both have said the governor will have a hard time finding support for legalized slot machines.
“It’s going to be up to the governor to get his votes; this is going to be his bill,” Mr. Miller said Monday.
The two leaders met Monday with Mr. O’Malley to discuss the logistics of the special session and to schedule hearings on the governor’s tax proposals.
Mr. Busch described the upcoming special session as “probably the most comprehensive look at a policy- and revenue-driven special session in half a century, if not better.”
“It will require a lot of discipline, a lot of preparation,” he said.
The session could last until Thanksgiving or longer.
The slot machine part of the proposal appears to be the most uncertain. A perennially contentious issue in Annapolis, slots do not generate major revenue in the first years of Mr. O’Malley’s plan. But the machines eventually are expected to raise about $550 million a year.
Mr. Busch said he does not think there is enough outright support in the House for a slots bill. Mr. O’Malley has said he is inclined to move toward putting the matter to a public vote. Mr. Busch said a referendum would receive more support.
• This article is based in part on wire service reports.
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