Keystone conundrum

OPINION:

Pennsylvania — the Keystone State — presents a conundrum of cultural curves and corners. Beltway peeps, despite some recent closings in the polls, presume that the state is all but locked for the balky senator from New York. We despise predictions. In 2008, predictions are flipped on something uncanny and metaphysical.

Mr. Obama, propped like Lincoln in Springfield that frigid February day, couldn’t predict he’d do this well, inner skepticism unseen by outer confidence. He asked himself aloud, Michelle leaning in, kids gawking at Nicktoons in the family room: “You think these white folks will vote for me?” That’s the key question in Keystone, offering critical insight into the nagging racial dynamics of this diversity peppered race. Certainly, few care to “Balkanize” the electorate. But the electorate Balkanizes itself anyway when the results flow in. Thus, drama as the mellow senator from Illinois appears to close in, stealthily — “the brother creeps” as they say — attrition like an April drizzle stretching Mrs. Clinton’s cash and patience thin as if Sun Tzu whispers in his ear.

Flashing his signature Philly frankness in a bid for future political relevance (senator?), the Pennsylvania governor, Clinton surrogate and cape-crusading super delegate Ed Rendell thought he could shake it up a bit with an answer to the question above. “You’ve got conservative whites here, and I think there are some whites who are probably not ready to vote for an African American candidate.” Big Eddy was just keeping it real. Not one to fake the funk, the statement was really less about signaling racial code (a’ la Bill Clinton, Geraldine Ferraro and, yes, Bob Johnson and Andrew Young) than it was about peeling the scab off Pennsylvania’s ugly truth: it’s always been a don’t-cross-the-other-side-of-the-tracks kind of state, fueled by a naturally leery disposition.

If it wasn’t code, it was simply old, machine-style campaign-trail chest-beating, as if to say, “My voters aren’t your voters, so back off.” But, his girl’s dipping poll numbers are indication that it backfired once media heads and bloggers ran with it.

Pennsylvania Caucasians may have a way about them, but pundits could have underestimated Rust Belt pride, with that fanatical hemorrhaging we hear at every Eagles or Steelers game. For one, Pennsylvania is the “O.G.” of original states, it’s their “very first state,” where it all began, and its inhabitants don’t take kindly to being “written off.” But, more so, the ceaseless bantering about their racial insecurities may have reached its final, annoying pitch.

The past several weeks, Pennsylvanians have been painted as too white, too old, too grumpy, too unsophisticated and too “blue collar” to know A from Z… too callous and plain to cast informed votes. Where did the salt sting most? When this Northern bedrock, where a gruesome bloodletting at Gettysburg determined the very fate of a once fragile Union, was seen as too “hick” and too “redneck” to vote for a black president.

Granted, Pennsylvania, with its Brotherly Love jingle and tourist affability, appears notoriously contrary to the notion of African Americans running statewide. The failed gubernatorial bid in 1994 of State Rep. Dwight Evans, a Democrat, underscored this point, somewhat — his legendary lack of campaign management skills and ornery reputation didn’t help. But, the point grew louder in 2006 when Pittsburgh Steeler son-turned-sports analyst Lynn Swann, a Republican, tackled it, his impressive win as the state GOP’s gubernatorial nominee clouded by an embarrassing defeat to Mr. Rendell. Democrat Valerie McDonald Roberts also barely registered in 2006 during her run for lieutenant governor. Massachusetts Democratic Governor Patrick Deval’s historic 2006 win in the Bay State outdid Pennsylvania. Was it like New England besting Philadelphia in Super Bowl XXXIX? More like a belligerent John Adams snapping pacifist John Dickinson over colonial rebellion.

There is no matter in whether Mr. Obama engineers a dramatic upset on April 22nd. The larger point resides in Pennsylvania’s white voters reflecting the broader national mindset should he win his party’s nomination by August. The agitation of civil rights old heads suggests anxiety over the thought that many white voters need an Obama to wash away perceived sins of historic guilt and complicity. It’s a plausible theory, stirred in a soup of racial presumptions and hints.

And it could prove problematic for an Obama nomination should the good Republican senator from Arizona decide to acknowledge the existence of his party’s black politicos. Here lies the reason behind an ongoing push for Condoleezza Rice as running mate, cynical political “affirmative action” assuming two political chips for the price of one dims the competition’s multicultural glitz. But, since Miss Rice tires of Washington and looks west to Stanford, dreamily mystified by some remote chance as NFL commish, Michael Steele and J.C. Watts’ names emerge as telegenic saviors. Should there be discomfort voting for the “liberal” black guy on the left, viable black “conservative” options to the right may exist as attractive propositions. It may work as long as the surge “works” and as long as the national conscience puts their first African American in the White House.

Peter C. Groff, president of the Colorado Senate, is founding executive director of the University of Denver’s Center for African American Policy and founding publisher of Blackpolicy.org. Charles D. Ellison is senior fellow at the center and chief editor of Blackpolicy.org. They host the radio show “Blackpolicy.org.”