The people vs. Robert Mugabe

OPINION:

A Zimbabwean civic group has revealed what the dictator is hiding: Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai beat President Robert Mugabe by at least 2.5 percent in last Saturday’s elections. A runoff would be required if neither wins a majority — presuming, as one should not in repressive Zimbabwe, that the law is followed.

This is unprecedented. Normally, in this long-suffering country, ballot stuffing would result in a swift Mugabe “victory.” Not this time. The Zimbabwean opposition is enjoying unexpected and unprecedented momentum.

As in the past, the regime may simply quash the opposition, although that will be more difficult this time. Recalling “Operation Take Out the Trash” is to realize that harsh, inhuman behavior is the Mugabe regime’s norm. The government’s 2005 “anti-squatter” initiative deprived an estimated 700,000 Zimbabweans of their homes and businesses, for no reason but the support that many lent the opposition. These were poor Zimbabweans who lived in shantytowns. Hundreds of thousands are refugees today. Irrational economic policies have also taken their toll: 100,500 percent inflation and a Zimbabwean dollar which trades at 50 million for a single U.S. greenback are among this government’s “accomplishments.” More than half of Zimbabweans are unemployed.

Even accounting for the usual impunity toward Mr. Mugabe’s staggering misrule, it will be difficult to roll this one back. For the first time, Zimbabwean election results were published individually at 9,000 poll stations. In the past, these would be tallied centrally by Harare officials under the close watch of Mugabe cronies. How and why the regime allowed this to unfold so freely will be a fascinating story once the more important succession drama is concluded.

What’s clear is that the people have repudiated Mr. Mugabe. Now is the time for any “friend” of the wayward freedom fighter — such as a treacherous 84 year-old dictator may have any — to pressure him to leave office quietly. Past behavior suggests that a quiet departure is fantasy. But then, as of last week, who would have expected a serious challenge to Mr. Mugabe’s rule? This is uncharted territory. The people may still prevail.