Congressional campaign coffers

OPINION:

If there were ever a question about how quickly campaign contributions by individuals and political action committees correlate with the latest election returns (and find their way to the new chairmen of the committees and subcommittees), a recent report by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) provides conclusive answers.

The FEC looked at the 2007 financial activity of congressional candidates and compared it to previous “off-year” fund-raising results. Here are some observations about the trends in House elections, few of which augur well for Republican prospects. A future editorial will look at the fund-raising activities of Senate candidates:

m Democratic House candidates, whose party last controlled the House in 1994, raised $200 million in 2007 — a 64 percent increase over 2005 ($122 million) and a 122 percent increase over 2003 ($90 million). Republican House candidates raised $143 million in 2007 — $15 million, or 9 percent, less than the $157 million Republican House candidates raised as the majority party in 2005.

m In 2007, Democratic House candidates raised $57 million, or 40 percent, more than Republicans raised. In 2003, Republican House candidates raised $133 million and held a $43 million, or 47 percent, fundraising advantage over Democratic candidates. In 2005, Republicans raised $35 million, or 29 percent, more than Democrats raised.

m Democratic House candidates raised $80 million from PACs in 2007, 80 percent more than they collected in 2005. Meanwhile, Republican PAC money plunged by 28 percent in 2007, falling from $62 million in 2005 to $47 million last year. Between 2003 and 2007, individual contributions to Republican House candidates managed to hold steady at $76 million, but Democratic receipts from individuals more than doubled, jumping from $51 million in 2003 to $104 million last year.

m At the end of last year, Democratic House candidates had $173 million in cash on hand — $50 million more than Republican coffers held ($123 million). At the end of 2005, Republican candidates had $156 million in cash on hand, nearly $30 million more than Democrats had.

m Whereas Republican candidates contesting open seats raised $5 million more than their Democratic counterparts in 2005 ($19 million vs. $14 million), in 2007 Democrats seeking open seats raised $3 million more than Republicans campaigning in open-seat districts ($19 million vs. $16 million).

m In 2007, Republicans challenging incumbent Democrats raised an impressive $26 million, which was 125 percent more than GOP challengers raised in 2005. However, after gaining 30 seats in 2006 by knocking off the most vulnerable Republican incumbents and transforming a 232-203 Republican majority into a 233-202 Democratic advantage, Democratic candidates hoping to challenge Republican incumbents in November raised $27 million in 2007.

If money raised by House candidates proves to be the determining factor, 2008 looks like a very rough year for Republicans.