Obscured by the earthquake-tsunami-nuclear-threat tragedy and the crises in the Middle East, there have been subtle geopolitical shifts in the Western Pacific.
With little publicity in the U.S. media (or, for that matter, in the left-leaning Japanese mainstream press), American military forces played a magnificent role in the rescue and early cleanup efforts following the March tsunami.
Grotesquely incompetent Japanese politicians - at any moment there may be another revolving-door prime minister - have obscured this phenomenon, along with their studied refusal to honor their own high-performing Self-Defense Force. The core of the ruling Japan Democratic Party (JDP) was recruited from a ’60s generation vociferously opposed to the American alliance and the reconstitution of a civilian-led Japanese military. Its taken three years of provocation by Beijing - now seemingly at least temporarily abated - to force full recognition of the growing threat posed by a rapidly arming China and its obstreperous North Korean ally.
In sharp contrast was the publics stoic response to the loss of 30,000 lives and the destruction of whole towns and villages. But now a 15.3 percent drop in factory output has imperiled Japans “just-in-time,” internationally linked export assembly operations. Already a $50 billion boost to the budget has been approved. Japans central bank has doubled its asset purchases, injected record amounts into money markets and unveiled a one-year lending program.
Its early to know whether the tragedy will reawaken “Yamato damashii” - that remarkable “Japanese spirit” ethos to overcome adversity characterizing the country since its rapid emergence as a world power beginning only 150 years ago. But recuperating from the $300 billion loss might reinvigorate the worlds third-largest economy, one that has been suffering from two decades of deflation.
Working against this hope, of course, is the rating agencies downgrading of Japan’s huge and growing government debt, the most rapidly aging population in the industrialized world and a lack of dynamic leadership.
Much depends on whether growing internal strife within the JDP will produce a long-hoped-for political realignment, introducing younger blood and new ideas. Luckily, the campaign against Japans powerful bureaucracy has been mostly talk. In fact, the legendary bureaucrats performed well in this unprecedented emergency - certainly compared with the corrupt management of the country’s utilities, in bed with the politicians.
Backed by public appreciation of American efforts and repeated Chinese provocations - the latest an attempt to corner the rare earths markets on which Japans movement toward advanced technology so heavily depends - muffled calls have arisen in Japan for strengthening the U.S. alliance.
Tokyos concern is enhanced by Taiwans new formal economic integration with mainland China and the possibility that political domination could follow, despite Taiwanese President Ma Ying-Jeous protestations to the contrary. (Ironically, Taiwan, whose native islanders have fond memories of the relatively benign Japanese 50-year occupation, made the largest contributions after the U.S. to the recent disaster relief efforts.) Tokyo has always seen Taiwan as strategically critical to its defense. And the Obama administrations continued foot-dragging on weapons for Taipei has certainly been noted, an issue long a major source of friction between Washington and Beijing.
Any expansion of Japanese-U.S. military collaboration will come up against both countries budgetary constraints. Rapid American technological progress - with Japan as a junior partner, especially in anti-missile defense - could compensate partially for more cutbacks likely in military spending under Secretary of Defense-designate Leon E. Panetta, noted for his dovish views.
But this confluence of events has led to whispered speculation that the expensive - and strategically dubious - U.S. Marine Corps move from Japans southern island of Okinawa to Guam might be shelved. That Marine “fire brigades,” operating from the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, could arrive within two hours off the quake area was yet one more demonstration of why the Ryukyus chain historically has played such an important role.
This years just-approved U.S. military construction budget contains another $246 million, added to a $1.2 billion down payment already appropriated, toward the estimated $4 billion bill for transferring 8,600 Marines from Okinawa. The Japanese government has pledged another $6 billion.
To halt the move, Tokyo would have to confront local opposition to the expansion of facilities on Okinawa, a move difficult for the JDP with its left-wing constituencies. But even if a U.S. diplomat was fired recently for saying so publicly, the Okinawans half-century of blackmail of Tokyo and Washington is wearing thin. A stronger Tokyo team might just call their bluff, cancel the Guam transfer and put those yen into reconstruction, producing welcome savings for Japanese - and American - taxpayers. Only a hint of a rainbow on the horizon, but …
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