- The Washington Times - Thursday, October 18, 2012

I’ve made my feelings known about picking up the flavor of the week. I think it’s foolish to let one surprising week dictate your thinking. As a fellow fantasy leaguer likes to say, you need a little patience. 

No, I am not in a league with Axl Rose. Although if I was, my team name would be Bill Bailey’s All-Stars.

Anyway, a healthy Brian Hartline didn’t catch a pass last week, and Kevin Ogletree dropped what would have been his first TD since his “breakout game” in Week 1; he, too, finished with zero catches.

Over the course of the season, it usually backfires to get caught up in the moment. This applies not only to the waiver wire, but also trades. Inevitably, when a known player who is not considered a star has a big week, the popular response is to trade him.

Sell high!

That’s been the mantra from all corners of the fantasy football world this week regarding Shonn Greene, who’s coming off a career-high 161 yards rushing and three TDs (which only tied a career high, as Redskins fans can tell you),

The thinking is that Greene, a notorious underachiever, will never be more valuable and the value you can acquire in trading him will never be greater. I’m not sure either of those is correct.

There’s too much information out there these days, so in a situation like this, with a player like this, you can’t count on finding a fellow owner willing to part with a proven player in exchange for a player who too often has proved he can’t be counted on.

In other words, if you’re ready to dump a player after a huge week, that’s a sign to any potential trading partners that you don’t think much of his long-term value. That being the case, why should they?

Chances are, if you trade a player like Shonn Greene, what you’ll get in return is, well, a player like Shonn Greene. Therefore, there’s really not much value in trading him.

But is there much value in keeping him? Of course there is. Despite the frustration of watching Greene show flashes like he did last week after a month of forgettable performances, starting RBs with big-game potential — regardless of how few and far between those big games are — are always valuable. Remember, last week the big free agent prizes were Alex Green and Vick Ballard (two great real-life names for superheroes, by the way). Not only were people picking up those players, they were starting them. So you could do much worse than having Greene on your roster.

The other related issue here is injuries. The dearth of even moderately good RBs is exacerbated by how easy it is for those playing the position to get hurt. That’s why Green and Ballard (a great name for a law firm specializing in auto injuries that runs annoying commercials on TBS) were on the radar last week.

Not only has Greene been relatively durable during his career, but perhaps the best sign for him moving forward was not his performance last week, but the fact that his backup, Bilal Powell, injured his shoulder and is currently out. Also, third-down back Joe McKnight is questionable with a high-ankle sprain. Nothing is more important for a RB’s fantasy value than touches, and Greene is now going to get more than usual.

Therefore, his value very well may be greater in a few weeks. Be patient, get what you can out of him while his chances for success have been improved, and If he shows he can consistently produce, then you think about trading him.

The best deals are those you don’t have to make.



Click to Read More

Click to Hide