- Associated Press - Sunday, September 23, 2012

TOKYO — One is a former prime minister known for his nationalistic views. A second is a hawkish former defense chief.

And a third is the son of Tokyo’s outspoken governor whose proposal to buy and develop a cluster of uninhabited islands claimed by both China and Japan has set off a territorial furor between the two countries.

A look at the top candidates to lead Japan’s main opposition party — and potentially to become Japan’s next prime minister — suggests that Japan may soon get a more nationalist government.

That could ratchet up already tense relations with China and South Korea over territorial disputes that have flared in recent weeks and brought anti-Japanese demonstrations to dozens of Chinese cities.

There is little sign that Japanese have grown more nationalistic, but the ruling Democratic Party of Japan is expected to get clobbered in elections that Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda says he will call soon.

Voters are angry with Mr. Noda’s push to double the sales tax and his party’s failure to bring promised change to Japan’s stodgy politics.

That leaves the opposition Liberal Democratic Party poised to regain the power it lost three years ago after decades of being Japan’s dominant political force.

Polls suggest the Liberal Democrats will win the most seats in the more powerful lower house of parliament, although probably not the majority, so it would need to forge a governing coalition to rule.

If the Liberal Democrats regain power, its new leader, to be chosen in a Sept. 26 party vote, almost certainly would become the next prime minister.

The Liberal Democratic Party is a conservative, pro-U.S. party with a traditional suspicion of China.

The five candidates running for its top job, including former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, have been taking turns calling on Japan to get tough with Beijing in the escalating dispute over the rocky outcroppings in the East China Sea called Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China.

The islands, near key shipping lanes and surrounded by rich fishing grounds and untapped natural resources, are controlled by Japan but also claimed by China and Taiwan.

“Losing a piece of our territory eventually means losing the whole country,” declared Mr. Ishiba, a security and national defense specialist who is considered a hawk, at a news conference Wednesday.

He has said he would be in favor of developing the islands, a move that surely would anger China.

“Our beautiful countryside and ocean are under threat,” Mr. Abe, perhaps the most right-wing of the five, has said on the campaign trail.

Mr. Abe riled Asian neighbors when he was prime minister in 2006 and ‘07 by saying there is no proof Japan’s military had coerced Chinese, Korean and other women into prostitution in military brothels during World War II. He later apologized, but lately he has been suggesting that a landmark 1993 apology for sex slavery may need revising.

Mr. Abe also recently has said he regrets not visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, which honors Japan’s war dead, including executed war criminals, during his time as prime minister.

This issue is important: Former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s repeated visits to Yasukuni in the early 2000s put relations with China into a deep freeze.

Another front-runner in the Liberal Democratic Party race is Nobuteru Ishihara, son of Tokyo’s stridently nationalistic governor, Shintaro Ishihara.

While the younger Mr. Ishihara is less outspoken than his father, his blood ties would be a major obstacle for Beijing in particular.

“It’s going to be very difficult for him to disassociate himself from his father,” said Jeff Kingston, director of Asian studies at Temple University in Tokyo. “If you do have a nationalist in charge in Japan, they could make things worse. They certainly could throw oil on the fire.”

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