- The Washington Times - Tuesday, January 22, 2013

MOSCOW | The Kremlin’s evacuation of Russians from Syria on Tuesday marks a turning point in its view of the civil war, representing increasing doubts about Syria President Bashar Assad’s hold on power and a sober understanding that it has to start rescue efforts before it becomes too late.

The operation has been relatively small-scale, involving fewer than 100 people, mostly women and children — but it marks the beginning of what could soon turn into a risky and challenging operation.

Analysts warn that rescuing tens of thousands of Russians from the war-stricken country could quickly become daunting as the opposition makes new advances in the battle against the Syrian president.

“It’s a sign of distrust in Assad, who seems unlikely to hold on to power,” said Alexei Malashenko, a Middle East analyst with the Carnegie Endowment’s Moscow office.

Russia has been Mr. Assad’s main ally, pooling together with China at the United Nations to block international sanctions against his regime.

But it increasingly has distanced itself from the Syrian ruler, signaling it is resigned to the prospect of him losing power.

On Tuesday, four buses carrying about 80 Russians crossed into Lebanon, the first evacuation organized by Moscow since the start of the conflict nearly two years ago. Russia said a day earlier that about 100 of its citizens in Syria would be taken to Lebanon and flown home.

Mr. Malashenko said that the evacuation reflects a strong concern in Moscow that Mr. Assad’s fall would put Russians in grave danger.

“There is a strong likelihood that Assad’s foes could unleash a massacre of those whom they see as his supporters,” he said.

In addition to tens of thousands Russians permanently living in Syria, most of whom are Russian women married to Syrian men, and their children, there is also an unspecified number of diplomats and military advisers along with their families. The evacuees are permanent residents not connected to the embassy.

Georgy Mirsky, the top Middle East expert with the Institute for World Economy and International Relations, a government-funded think tank, warned that Russians in Syria are facing growing risks.

“Many are reluctant to leave, hoping that the situation could somehow stabilize,” he said. “But Aleppo is already half-ruined, and it will soon come to that in Damascus too. Sooner or later, Assad is going to lose.”

Russia could rely on Mr. Assad to provide a military escort for caravans of refugees, but such protection may not be reliable enough with the Syrian army’s resources drained by the need to battle rebels all around the country.

Refugee convoys could make an easy target for the rebels when they try to move to neighboring Lebanon for a flight home.

Direct Russian flights to Syrian airfields also would be a risky option with rebels possessing portable anti-aircraft missiles.

“That’s why they sent the planes now without waiting until the eleventh hour when rebels come close to victory,” Mr. Mirsky said.

Alexander Golts, an independent Moscow-based military analyst, said that if Russia sees Mr. Assad’s defeat as imminent, it would have to quickly organize a massive air bridge to take its citizens home.

He said that such an effort would be extremely challenging and require sending troops to protect an air base in Syria that would be chosen for the evacuation to make sure that no rebels armed with anti-aircraft weapons are in close vicinity.

Even now, with Mr. Assad’s forces in control of the area around Damascus, Russian planes flew to Beirut in a clear move to reduce security risks, Mr. Golts said.

A Russian navy squadron, currently in the Mediterranean, is scheduled to conduct maneuvers off Syria’s shores later this month. It includes four landing ships capable of carrying several hundred marines and armored vehicles.

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