The increasingly likely prospect of Donald Trump winning the presidential election represents as much a global threat as the one posed by jihadis seeking to destabilize the world’s economy, according to a new report from a British research group.
In the latest version of its Global Risk assessment, the Economist Intelligence Unit ranked a Donald Trump win at 12 on its index. The top threat is a Chinese economic “hard landing,” rated at 20.
The EIU cited Mr. Trump’s hostility towards China and U.S. foreign trade agreements.
“[H]e has been exceptionally hostile towards free trade, including notably NAFTA, and has repeatedly labeled China as a ‘currency manipulator,’” the EIU wrote in its analysis justifying their rating.
“In the event of a Trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war,” the EIU said.
The group also said the real estate tycoon’s far-right stance on Muslims, including a proposed ban to stop them from entering the U.S., would be a “potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups.”
However, the group said it did not expect Mr. Trump to defeat his most likely Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, and pointed out that Congress would likely block some of Mr. Trump’s more radical proposals should he make it to the Oval Office.
Also ranked at 12 on the assessment is the “rising threat of jihadi terrorism that destabilizes the global economy.”
The breakup of the eurozone following a Greek exit from the bloc was rated 15, while the possibility of another “cold war” caused by Russia’s interventions in Ukraine and Syria was given the second-highest threat rating at 16.