An independent daily tracking survey billed as nation’s most accurate shows Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton knotted in a dead heat even as other polls show her leading the presidential race.
The Investor’s Business Daily poll, known as IBD/TIPP, released Monday found the top two candidates deadlocked at 41 percent, followed by Libertarian Gary Johnson at 8 percent and Green Party nominee Jill Stein at 4 percent.
What’s more, since Oct. 20, the survey has shown Mr. Trump running slightly ahead of Mrs. Clinton. He led Mrs. Clinton on Sunday by 43 to 41 percent, a marked difference from the Real Clear Politics average, which had Mrs. Clinton ahead by six percentage points.
“Unlike many other polls, the IBD/TIPP Poll continues to show a tightening race, as the candidates and their surrogates slug it out in public in the waning days until the Nov. 8 polling date,” said the Monday analysis.
The pollster has pointed to its track record with data indicating that its presidential polls were the most accurate in 2004, 2008 and 2012.
“Over the long term, our own tally shows that for the 2004, 2008 and 2012 elections IBD/TIPP’s average prediction for the final presidential vote margin was the most accurate, with a difference of a mere 0.9 percent between our predictions and the final outcomes for all three years,” said Terry Jones of Investor’s Business Daily in an Oct. 13 column.
The pollster also said that The New York Times named it the most accurate polling company of the 2012 race.
Other recently released polls showing Mrs. Clinton ahead by at least four percentage points include those conducted by ABC News, Quinnipiac, Fox News, the Economist/YouGov, Bloomberg and Reuters/Ipsos.