OPINION:
Presidential polls are tightening in both key battleground states and nationally as Hillary Clinton is having trouble rebuilding President Obama’s winning coalition.
The youth vote, which helped propel Mr. Obama to victory in Virginia, is cooling to Mrs. Clinton. Among those ages 35 and younger, Mrs. Clinton’s lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump dropped from 24 points in late August to just 5 points in a recent Quinnipiac survey.
Many in this youth vote are Vermont Sen. Bernard Sanders’ supporters — who vowed publicly they were “Bernie or bust” come November. Mr. Sanders hit the campaign trail for Mrs. Clinton last week, trying to woo these reluctant voters, although his crowds were noticeably smaller than they were when he was running for the democratic nomination.
Mr. Sanders won nearly three-quarters of the youth vote in the primaries, and Mr. Obama won 60 percent of voters under 30 in 2012 elections.
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian nominee, is also stealing potential votes from Mrs. Clinton within this key demographic, with the Quinnipiac survey showing him earning 29 percent of likely voters under the age of 35, from 16 percent in August.
A Michigan poll also illuminated Mrs. Clinton’s trouble with gathering a strong African-American coalition. A Detroit Free-Press and WXYZ survey had Mrs. Clinton holding 74 percent of their vote, but that pales in comparison to Mr. Obama’s 93 percent in 2012 and is less than the 85 percent she polled in August.
There’s no doubt the press, and her team will use Mr. Trump’s birther conspiracy to help drive her support with this demographic — many of whom are offended at Mr. Trump’s five-year quest to demerit the nation’s first black president.
First lady Michelle Obama also hit the campaign trail last week for Mrs. Clinton, with audiences chanting “four more years” for several seconds before she hit the stage.
Mr. Obama was most forceful this weekend, when he addressed the Congressional Black Caucus gala on Saturday and warned while his name was not on the ballot in November, it would be a “personal insult,” to his legacy if black voters didn’t turn out for Mrs. Clinton.
“If I hear anybody saying their vote does not matter, that it doesn’t matter who we elect — read up on your history. It matters. We’ve got to get people to vote,” Mr. Obama said. “I will consider it a personal insult — an insult to my legacy — if this community lets down its guard and fails to activate itself in this election. You want to give me a good sendoff? Go vote.”
Hispanics are another voter block, where Mrs. Clinton is failing behind Mr. Obama’s previous support.
“Recent polls show Mrs. Clinton is not earning the same support among Hispanics, young people or white voters that Mr. Obama captured when he eked out a Florida victory four years ago in the country’s most hard-fought swing state,” The New York Times wrote in its Sunday paper.
A survey conducted by Univision, showed Mrs. Clinton winning 53 percent of Florida Hispanics, compared with the 60 percent who voted for Mr. Obama in 2012.
The Washington Post on Monday criticized Mrs. Clinton and her team’s outreach to this demographic saying: “Despite a uniquely favorable environment with Trump’s repeated attacks on undocumented immigrants, Democrats are increasingly worried that the opportunity is slipping away to meet a long-standing party goal of marshaling the nation’s growing Hispanic population into a permanent electoral force. The concerns are compounded by Trump’s recent surge in several battleground states.”
Among those: Nevada, Florida, Colorado and Arizona.
With Mr. Trump’s strength among working-class white men, improved numbers among millennials and white married women, and the enthusiasm his base has for his nomination, many Democrats are worried that if Mrs. Clinton can’t cobble together Mr. Obama’s winning coalition, then she may very well lose to the bombastic businessman. He’s also reaching out to the African-American community — traveling to Flint, Michigan and Detroit.
“I’ve known Hillary for many years, ever since she came to Arkansas,” former Sen. Dale Bumpers told the Los Angeles Times. “She’ll find a way to screw it up. She always does.”
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