FRANKFORT, Ky. (AP) - When Kentucky Republicans made it a goal to win a majority in the state House of Representatives, they had one obvious disadvantage to overcome: Winning in districts that were drawn by Democrats.
But a new analysis of election results by The Associated Press indicates it was Republicans who could have benefited slightly from the way the districts were drawn, contributing to what would become a landslide election for the GOP. It was the opposite of 2014, when a similar analysis showed Democrats had a slight advantage in the same districts.
The analysis measured the “efficiency gap” in Kentucky’s state House races. The formula seeks to identify “wasted votes,” defined as any vote for a losing candidate or any vote for a winning candidate beyond the 50 percent threshold required to win. The analysis found Republicans benefited from an efficiency gap of nearly 3 percent, allowing them to win three more seats than they would have expected to win given their share of statewide votes.
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Republicans won 64 seats, taking them from a 47-seat minority to a super majority.
“The easiest way to overcome those sorts of attempts is by recruiting good candidates and running good campaigns. And I think that’s what we did,” Republican Party of Kentucky spokesman Tres Watson said.
The efficiency gap is the subject of a lawsuit before the U.S. Supreme Court. In that case, some voters from Wisconsin point out the efficiency gap in their state was 13 percent in 2012. They argue that anything over 7 percent is unconstitutional.
The efficiency gap method was designed by University of Chicago Law professor Nick Stephanopoulos and researcher Eric McGhee at the Public Policy Institute of California. Both of them say the 2.9 percent efficiency gap in Kentucky is, statistically speaking, not much different than zero.
That’s because the estimate that The Associated Press used for uncontested races is less complicated than the model used by academic researchers. And other factors beyond partisan gerrymandering could explain the efficiency gap in Kentucky’s election, including shifting political attitudes, voters moving to other districts and the quality of candidates.
“Party control of redistricting is a powerful driver of the efficiency gap. But even if that’s right, party control is far from the only driver, and can sometimes be overwhelmed by other forces,” Stephanopoulos said.
The state legislature redrew Kentucky’s House districts in 2012. But the state courts struck down those maps, forcing lawmakers to draw new maps in 2013. At the time, Democrats controlled the House while Republicans controlled the Senate. Both parties needed each other to pass their maps.
The next round of redistricting will be after the 2020 census, and it could be a very different process. If Republicans hold onto power in both legislative chambers and Republican Gov. Matt Bevin wins re-election, it would give the party complete control of the redistricting process for the first time.
“Gerrymandering can’t keep you in power if the winds of political change are against you,” said University of Kentucky election law and voting rights professor Joshua Douglas. “But it can certainly entrench your power and embellish that win if the wind is behind your back, which is what Republicans can do in 2020 if they continue to stay in power.”
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