Scores of vulnerable House Democrats in swing districts find themselves stuck between a rock and hard place on the impeachment vote, at risk of alienating crucial supporters on every side of the political divide no matter how they vote.
Republican leaders see that dilemma as a boon for their quest to retake the House in 2020.
“When they vote on these two articles of impeachment, that will be the end of their majority,” Rep. Tom Emmer, chairman of National Republican Congressional Committee that is tasked with electing GOP lawmakers, told The Washington Times.
Mr. Emmer, Minnesota Republican, pointed to a rash of new polls that show a dip in support for impeachment, particularly among independents, after weeks of public hearings. He said it was proof impeachment is losing steam with voters.
What’s more, vulnerable Democrats face a lose-lose proposition. Either they vote for impeachment to please the pro-impeachment base and alienate the independent voters they need to win, or they vote against impeachment and lose their anti-Trump base, which also risks their defeat, according to GOP strategists.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee resolutely rejected the GOP’s preemptive victory lap, saying the fact that 20 Republicans have announced plans to retire is a bad omen.
“Republican leadership might not have given up on retaking the House. But clearly their members have,” DCCC spokesperson Robyn Patterson said to The Washington Times on Thursday. “More than 20 House Republicans have called it quits this year and that number is only set to grow. Washington Republicans have been outraised, outworked and are exhausted from sweeping Trump’s abuses of power under the rug. That’s why so many of them are headed for the exits.”
A Democratic aide told The Times that internal polling shows that impeachment won’t sway voters who are more focused on key issues such as health care and drug prices.
The point of no return is fast approaching, as the House Judiciary Committee prepares to vote Thursday to send two articles of impeachment against President Trump to the full House, which is expected to deliver its verdict next week.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is believed to have lined up the simple majority of 218 votes needed to pass the articles of impeachment, which include one charge of abuse of power and one charge of obstructing Congress.
Impeachment then would move to a trial in the Republican-run Senate, where Mr. Trump enjoys strong support and is all but assured an acquittal. Senate Democrats would need 20 GOP defectors for the two-thirds majority vote required to convict the president and remove him from office.
Still, the House vote is expected to linger throughout the 2020 campaigns.
Democrats hold 31 House districts that Mr. Trump won in 2016, with 20 of those districts considered ripe for a Republican pickup.
Many Democrats from those tough districts haven’t enthusiastically embraced impeachment, nor have they bucked their party’s impeachment-hungry leaders. They keep saying they need more time to consider the articles.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a Michigan Democrat from a district the president won by 7 percentage points, said she is constantly hearing from her constituents about impeachment.
“The phones are ringing off the hook. We literally can’t pick up the phones fast enough — and it’s people on both sides of it,” she said on CNN.
The freshman congresswoman told reporters at the Capitol that she is undecided on the articles of impeachment but plans to discuss it with voters Monday at a town hall in her district.
Mrs. Pelosi, California Democrat, didn’t waver when asked about the political risk her majority now faces with the election less than a year away.
“We take an oath to protect and defend — if we do not do that we would be, again, delinquent in our duties. It isn’t about elections, it’s about the Constitution,” she said. “I’m not worried.”
The moderate Democrats from swing districts have been the game-changer for impeachment. Mrs. Pelosi refused to support moving forward with a formal inquiry for months until the vast majority of members from those districts agreed to an inquiry into the Ukraine allegations.
Once the inquiry began, however, there was no stopping the race to an impeachment vote.
The article of impeachment for abuse of power stems from allegations that Mr. Trump leveraged a White House meeting and nearly $400 million in military aid to pressure the Ukrainian president to investigate political rival Joseph R. Biden and Ukraine meddling in the 2016 election.
The second article, obstruction of Congress, is rooted in the administration’s refusal to cooperate with Democrats’ subpoenas of witnesses and documents in the impeachment inquiry.
Mr. Trump has denied wrongdoing and condemned the impeachment effort as a “sham.”
Even while complaining about the process and the rapid pace of impeachment, Republicans think the episode helps make the case that they would make better use of the majority.
For months, Republicans have targeted Democrats in swing districts, accusing them of prioritizing a partisan impeachment over fulfilling their campaign promises. House Democrats moved to beat back that criticism this week by advancing big-ticket measures such as the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement trade deal and a bill to lower prescription drug prices.
“The silver lining of impeachment and this witch hunt, that’s the reason they approved USMCA,” Mr. Trump said at a campaign rally Tuesday in Hershey, Pennsylvania.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.