Almost a third of U.S. voters believe a civil war is on its way — a bleak commentary on the growing tensions around the country due to coronavirus shutdowns and police policies that have manifested in destruction and defacement of historical monuments and memorials, anarchist takeovers of city streets and riotous uprisings.
By the numbers, it’s 34% of likely voters who think civil war beckons — 40% of Republicans, Rasmussen Reports finds.
These findings are entirely believable.
The chaos in America’s streets is something that’s been brewing for some time — and we’re due for explosion.
“This Researcher Predicted 2020 Would Be Mayhem,” Time magazine just wrote. “Here’s What He Says May Come Next.”
His name is Peter Turchin, he’s a researcher and cultural evolution teacher at the University of Connecticut and a decade ago, he offered up a historical analysis of how America, circa 21st century, circa 2020 and beyond, might look — and it wasn’t pretty. It was filled with social upheavals, he predicted, initially in the journal Nature.
He was right.
“As a scientist,” he said, in Time, “I feel vindicated. But on the other hand, I am an American and have to live through these hard times.”
He based his outlooks on historical truths of social turmoil, which he found occurs about every 50 years, and on computer modeling that took note of socioeconomic factors that came and went in line with the times of turmoil.
In 2010, Turchin predicted 2020 was America’s “due” year.
And if he was right about that — well, maybe he’s right about this: He told Time the COVID-19 pandemic and the faltering trust of the people in government could bring other triggers for societal tension, to the point America “may escalate all the way to a civil war,” he said.
And roughly a third of American voters agree.
• Cheryl Chumley can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org or on Twitter, @ckchumley. Listen to her podcast “Bold and Blunt” by clicking HERE. And never miss her column; subscribe to her newsletter by clicking HERE.