The economic downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic is projected to cause President Trump to experience a “historic defeat” in November’s election against former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, according to a new model published this week.
CNN reported Wednesday the record high unemployment — among other factors — has led Oxford Economics’ national election model to predict a landslide. The data suggests the president may only capture 35 percent of the popular vote.
“It would take nothing short of an economic miracle for pocketbooks to favor Trump,” read the Oxford Economics report.
The projection has been accurate in predicting the popular vote in every election since 1948, with the exception of 1968 and 1976, CNN noted.
The Oxford Economics’ model also suggests key swing states Mr. Trump won in 2016 will flip for Democrats this year. Those include Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.