Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien said Monday that President Trump will win a second term if his supporters turn out in expected numbers on Election Day, pointing to promising trends in Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada.
“Look, it’s pretty simple — if the voters that we KNOW are still out there for Election Day show up ON Election Day, President Trump has four more years at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue,” Mr. Stepien said on Twitter.
He said there has been “a lot of bluster, from pollsters and pundits, about what we should expect tomorrow.”
“President Trump has the momentum in this race and the math available to him to win on Election Day,” Mr. Stepien said.
His comments came as the president, on a final four-state campaign blitz, urged Republicans to go to the polls in a “red wave” on Tuesday.
In a series of tweets, Mr. Stepien said Democrats’ advantage in early voting has dwindled in several key swing states, while the number of registered Republicans who haven’t voted yet will give the president an expected edge — if they show up at the polls on Tuesday.
In Florida, he said, Mr. Trump has “a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 500K net votes.” Democrats’ advantage in absentee ballots has fallen to 1 percentage point, Mr. Stepien said, slightly less than in 2016, when Mr. Trump won the state.
In Michigan, where Mr. Trump will hold his final campaign rally on Monday night, the campaign projects an Election Day votes-cast margin of more than 400,000 for Mr. Trump. Mr. Stepien said the president needs an Election Day margin of 350,000 votes to win Michigan, which he won four years ago.
“We have nearly 2 million voters left” in Michigan, he said.
In Wisconsin, Mr. Stepien said the president is projected to receive an Election Day net margin of more than 100,000 in votes cast. He said Democrats on Monday had a 5.9-percentage point advantage in partisan makeup of the electorate, while the gap was 9.6 points at the same point in 2016.
In Nevada, Mr. Stepien said the president is projected to receive a net 50,000 more votes than Democrat Joe Biden on Election Day.
In Arizona, where Donald Trump Jr. is campaigning on Monday, Mr. Stepien said the Democrats’ advantage in people who have voted so far is 1.2 percentage points. Four years ago when Mr. Trump won the state, the gap favoring Democrats was 2.5 points, he said.