Trump campaign officials predicted on Tuesday that the president will win at least 10% of Black voters in November and more than 40% of Hispanics, improving his performance with both traditionally Democratic voting groups since 2016.
Campaign manager Bill Stepien and senior adviser Jason Miller pointed to internal data and public surveys such as the Emerson College national poll, which was conducted just after the Republican National Convention that featured many minorities in prime-time speaking slots.
The Emerson survey found 19% of Black voters supporting Mr. Trump, and 37% of Hispanic voters favoring him. In 2016, Mr. Trump won 8% of Black voters and 28% of Hispanic voters.
“I firmly believe that President Trump will get over 10% of the African-American votes,” Mr. Miller told reporters in a conference call. “The president’s approval rating has jumped among Black voters nine points just during the GOP convention. I also believe that President Trump will get over 40% of the Latino vote.”
The president’s rising support among minorities comes as he visits embattled Kenosha, Wisconsin on Tuesday to express support for law enforcement after a week of rioting and protests over the police shooting of a Black man, Jacob Blake.
Asked if his visit will help racial tensions, the president replied, “I think it’s helping because I’m about law and order.”
A new national poll for America First Policies to be released Wednesday, found that 51% of Americans believe the protests have stopped being about racial justice and “have become violent riots by people who hate America and want to tear down our government and radically change American culture.”
Another 40% of those surveyed said the protests “are a result of years of injustice and inequality suffered by Americans who are minorities as a result of systemic racism in our police departments and in government in general.”
The survey also found that the major concern among independent and Republican voters has shifted from coronavirus to rebuilding the economy, and a majority believe Mr. Trump is the right candidate to lead that effort.
The group is a nonprofit supporting the president’s policies. The survey was conducted by OnMessage Inc. from Aug. 17-20, before the turmoil in Kenosha.
Trump campaign officials said their internal polling shows the president either leading or within the margin of error in every battleground state that Mr. Trump needs to win reelection. They said Mr. Trump’s prospects have improved as the economy recovers and as the nation is making progress against the coronavirus pandemic.
Mr. Stepien said the electoral map is “leaning our way.” He said the campaign has reserved $14 million of TV air time in Minnesota for ads in a state that the president lost in 2016 by about 2 percentage points.”We’re going all in on Minnesota,” Mr. Miller said.
Mr. Biden is leading in several national polls by less than 10 percentage points since the GOP convention ended last week.
Mr. Stepien and Mr. Miller said, given the way they see the election shaping up, Mr. Biden would need to win Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to win the presidency. They predicted he can’t do it.
The Trump campaign also has reserved $38 million worth of TV time in Florida, and $16 million in Pennsylvania.