As Russia prepared in the opening weeks of 2022 to invade its neighbor, many observers expected a quick victory. Russia’s modernized army vastly outnumbered the Ukrainian defenders, and Ukraine as a non-NATO member could not expect direct intervention from the Atlantic alliance to save it.
Six months later, Russian forces find themselves in a war of attrition in southern Ukraine, having made little progress in seizing additional territory in the north and east of the country. Both sides, after months of nearly constant combat, are reportedly running out of fresh soldiers. A years-long stalemate looms. That is hardly what Russian President Vladimir Putin envisioned in February, when he claimed in a rambling TV monologue that Moscow would liberate Ukraine from Nazis.
In this episode of History As It Happens, military historian Sir Lawrence Freedman discusses the reasons why war fails, from Russia in Ukraine to the U.S. in Iraq and Afghanistan, to France’s colonial war in Algeria a half century ago. It’s not that all wars in recent memory ended indecisively. Israel, for instance, clearly won several conflicts against the Arab states in the 1960s and ’70s. But certain kinds of conflicts, such as wars of occupation, have exposed the inadequacy of sheer military power.
“A basic proposition about warfare is, it is hard to prevail in occupied countries where you are not welcome,” said Mr. Freedman, emeritus professor of War Studies at King’s College London. “In Algeria, for example, the French army could say they won. They suppressed the Algerian guerrillas using methods that were pretty extreme, but what they lost was public support. There were demonstrations and strikes, and the government in exile was able to put pressure on the French government to get out.”
The war caused intense political turmoil inside France, especially after reports that the French counter-insurgency forces had tortured Algerian captives using methods that had been denounced during the Nazi occupation.
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Mr. Freedman contends wars fail because of failures in command, “and that includes both a country’s political leaders, who act as supreme commanders, and those seeking to achieve their military goals as operational commanders.”
Listen to the interview with Sir Lawrence Freedman by downloading this episode of History As It Happens.
