What do Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush, Herbert Hoover and Donald Trump have in common?
They are among 10 U.S. presidents whom voters rejected after one term. This list includes both John Adams and his son, John Quincy Adams, as well as William Howard Taft, Benjamin Harrison, Grover Cleveland and Martin van Buren. It doesn’t include unelected presidents such as Gerald Ford, who lost the ‘76 race after completing the disgraced Richard M. Nixon’s second term. Nor will you find James K. Polk’s name here. He promised (and he stuck to it!) not to seek reelection when he first campaigned in 1844.
Only once in U.S. history has a president won a nonconsecutive second term. That was Grover Cleveland in 1892, who avenged his 1888 loss to Benjamin Harrison. Mr. Trump hopes to be the next.
In this episode of History As It Happens, presidential historian Jeffrey Engel discusses the difficulties ahead for Mr. Trump in the context of the 1912 election, when the Republican Party’s Electoral College dominance foundered on Teddy Roosevelt’s third-party bid on the Bull Moose ticket. The incumbent was the Republican Taft, who wound up splitting the GOP vote with Roosevelt and thereby ceding the White House to Democrat Woodrow Wilson.
“People were very clear about what the result of this was going to be,” said Mr. Engel, the director of the Center for Presidential History at Southern Methodist University. “I think [Trump] is destined to split the Republican vote and one of two things is going to happen.” Mr. Trump will either win the GOP nomination and then lose in the general election because of his unpopularity outside of his increasingly narrow base, Mr. Engel said, or he will lose the nomination and run as a third-party candidate, splitting the vote. In either option, in Mr. Engel’s view, there’s a good chance the 2024 race will be 1912 redux.
Listen to Jeffrey Engel discuss the history of one-term presidents and how the presidency has changed over time, by downloading this episode of History As It Happens. It is also available wherever you find your podcasts.
