Fifty Octobers ago, Egypt and Syria stunned the world by attacking Israel in a desperate effort to regain territory occupied by the latter since 1967. The Yom Kippur War lasted 19 days, ending with a ceasefire and another humiliating Arab defeat on Oct. 26, 1973. To punish the U.S. for supporting Israel during the short conflict, Saudi Arabia led the oil-producing Arab states in an oil embargo and production cut that upended American politics and energy policy by quadrupling the price of oil overnight.
Today’s war, triggered by Hamas’ murderous attack on Israeli civilians on Oct. 7, is evoking memories of the 1973 conflict while raising concerns about oil price volatility. But as University of Missouri historian Victor McFarland explains in this episode of History As It Happens, the similarities between then and now are superficial. There’s almost no chance of the Arab oil producers wielding the “oil weapon” against the West as they did 50 years ago.
“It’s a very different situation from 1973,” said Mr. McFarland, an expert on oil and U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. “One big reason is that the fighting now is much more localized. In 1973, Israel was fighting Egypt and Syria, and the rest of the Arab world politically was lined up behind Egypt and Syria,” while Hamas doesn’t enjoy the same kind of Arab solidarity because of its ties to Iran.
The geopolitics of the Middle East has dramatically changed since 1973, with Saudi Arabia and Israel — at least before Oct. 7— moving toward normalization of relations. And the U.S. does not rely on Arab oil the way it once did. In fact, the U.S. is the world’s top oil producer again.
History As It Happens is available at washingtontimes.com or wherever you find your podcasts.
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