The headlines are not encouraging. With U.S. aid stalled in Congress, Ukraine’s military forces are experiencing acute shortages of weapons and ammunition. Russia expelled the defenders from the eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka after four months of grueling combat. A million Ukrainians lost their electricity after a Russian missile assault on civilian infrastructure. And the invaders continue to terrorize civilians with air strikes aimed at major cities.
In this episode of History As It Happens, Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft says “the war is not trending toward a stable stalemate, but toward Ukraine’s eventual collapse.” Thus, Ukraine and its Western supporters should attempt to negotiate an end to the war with Moscow, even though conventional wisdom dictates that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not interested in peace.
“Negotiations are always possible. Negotiations doesn’t mean an agreement. It means finding out what the other side wants,” said Mr. Lieven, who conceded that Mr. Putin may ultimately reject Western terms to end the war. Still, with the future of sustained aid to Ukraine in doubt, Kyiv risks suffering a military collapse in a prolonged war. On the other side, Russia has an incentive to talk.
“Russia can probably achieve some of its war aims by force, including blocking Ukraine’s membership in NATO and capturing much of the territory it regards as historically and culturally Russian. But Russia cannot conquer, let alone govern, the majority of Ukraine, nor can Russia secure itself against the ongoing threats of Ukrainian sabotage or potential NATO strikes absent a costly permanent military buildup that would undermine its civilian economy,” wrote Mr. Lieven and fellow Quincy analyst George Beebe in “The Diplomatic Path to a Secure Ukraine.”
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