Political gamblers bet heavily on Trump return to White House

While recent opinion polls are beginning to show former President Donald Trump gaining momentum in the presidential race, online political gambling markets have been backing the former president for weeks, with some platforms giving him 2-1 odds of winning the election.

• Polymarket has Mr. Trump as a 2-1 favorite to win, his strongest position since surviving an assassination attempt in July.
• Kalshi, a newly approved U.S.-based prediction market, shows Mr. Trump with over 60% odds of winning, pulling ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris.
• The platform has attracted nearly $82 million in bets on the Electoral College outcome alone.
• Critics, including Yale researchers, argue these markets are too small and easily manipulated, with daily betting volumes only reaching hundreds of thousands of dollars.

The reliability of prediction markets versus traditional polling remains a subject of debate. Wake Forest University economics professor Koleman Strumpf notes that while polls measure current voter sentiment, betting markets reflect the views of people willing to put money on the outcome. Historical data shows mixed results - prediction markets missed the mark in 2012, 2016, and 2020, though traditional polls have also had significant misses.

The landscape of political betting is evolving rapidly. Kalshi recently became the first major U.S.-based operation to receive court approval, despite opposition from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Some experts warn that as these markets grow, they could attract sophisticated financial players who might find ways to influence both the betting odds and election outcomes.

Read more: Oddsmakers betting big on Trump a week from election