The census order that could reshape Congress: Trump excludes illegal immigrants

As states rush to redraw their congressional maps, President Trump moved Thursday to get his team involved, saying he’s ordered the government to conduct a new count of the country’s residents — but this time without illegal immigrants. Here’s what you need to know about the Trump census order:

The Trump directive

President orders Commerce Department to conduct new count:

• Trump announced on social media he “instructed” Commerce Department to start work
• Department oversees Census Bureau
• Ordered “immediately” start work on “new and highly accurate” count
• “People who are in our Country illegally WILL NOT be COUNTED IN THE CENSUS”

The potential impact

New count could shift congressional seats between states:

• Could shift several seats from states with high illegal immigrant populations
• Would also spark “hefty constitutional questions”
• Slimmed-down census without illegal immigrants long-term conservative goal
• Based on both principle and politics arguments

The conservative rationale

Republicans argue illegal immigrants shouldn’t determine representation:

• Say illegal immigrants aren’t part of broader body politic that should be counted
• Fear Democrat-led states and localities get more congressional seats
• Also affects state legislature representation when illegal immigrants counted
• Argue counting creates unfair political advantage

The constitutional questions

Constitution calls for counting “whole number of free persons”:

• Document excepted Indians “not taxed” and included three-fifths compromise for slavery
• Also called for count “within every subsequent term of ten years”
• Left it to Congress to legislate on how counting done
• Whether Trump’s vision fits constitutional framework likely to be tested in courts

The seat shift projections

Study shows potential changes from excluding illegal immigrants:

• Two demographers John Robert Warren and Robert Warren published study this year
• If illegal immigrants hadn’t been included in 2020 count, would have shifted two seats
• Seats would have gone from Texas and California to New York and Ohio
• 2010 census would have seen larger shifts

The historical impact

Decade earlier would have seen more dramatic changes:

• After 2010 census, California would have lost three seats
• Texas and Florida would have lost one apiece
• Gains would have gone to Montana, Louisiana, Missouri, Ohio and North Carolina
• Electoral College affected but not enough to change election results

The legislative support

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene announces supporting legislation:

• Georgia Republican announced legislation to exclude illegal immigrants from census
• Trump touring Florida’s Gator Gitmo detention facility backed idea with Gov. DeSantis
• “Ron would love it. I would love it” said Trump
• DeSantis skeptical that little would change politically

DeSantis’s political calculation

Florida governor sees potential for significant seat gains:

• “We only got one seat in the last Census”
• “Florida only had one seat in that? We should have had at least two”
• “Texas should have had another one”
• “That could be the difference in the House of Representatives, and the majority”

The first-term precedent

Trump previously tried to adjust census during initial presidency:

• Sought to add citizenship question to 2020 count
• Supreme Court stepped in and shut him down before final deadline
• Chief Justice John Roberts said Trump likely had legal authority
• But didn’t follow correct rulemaking process for adding new question

The 2020 legal battle

Previous attempt to exclude illegal immigrants from count:

• Trump tried to order Commerce Department to provide states count without illegal immigrants
• Drew immediate legal challenge from opponents
• Three-judge panel ruled Trump’s order illegal
• Supreme Court held matter was premature and vacated lower court ruling

The Biden reversal

Current president set stage for Trump’s new attempt:

• President Biden rescinded Trump policy on taking office
• Action set Trump up for his “do-over now”
• New count will be “based on modern day facts and figures”
• Will use “results and information gained from the presidential election of 2024”

The redistricting context

Census order comes amid broader map-drawing battles:

• GOP-led Texas trying to redraw lines now to undo minority voter districts
• Started “dominoes toppling” with Democrat-led states retaliating
• Apportionment divides House’s 435 seats among states
• States then redistrict by drawing congressional district lines

Read more:

• Trump orders new census count to exclude those in U.S. illegally