OPINION:
When gas prices rise sharply, the common assumption is that the U.S. must be dependent on foreign oil.
The conflict in Iran pushed gasoline prices from less than $3 to more than $4 a gallon in a matter of days. Heating oil rose even faster in some regions. These increases were real, but they didn’t reflect a physical shortage. They reflected how global markets price risk long before supply changes.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, crude imports from the Persian Gulf accounted for about 8% of U.S. crude imports in 2025, the lowest share since the 1970s.
Put differently, more than 85% of U.S. crude imports come from outside the region. That is why we have not faced a supply crisis, but that does not prevent a price shock.
Oil trades in a global market, and when a major supply route is threatened, the global supply curve shifts even if the U.S. is not directly dependent on that route. Every buyer pays the new global price.
Gasoline demand does not fall quickly when prices rise. People still commute, transport goods and heat their homes. The adjustment happens through price rather than quantity.
A disruption that affects 20% of global supply can produce a 40% spike at the pump. This is not dysfunction; it’s how the market operates.
The impact is not uniform across the country. Most states sit within a continental system connected by pipelines drawing from Canada, the Gulf of America coast and domestic production.
California operates under different constraints. It imports roughly 75% of its crude oil, and about one-third comes from the Middle East. It has no pipeline connection to the continental network, and its refineries are optimized for crude grades supplied by the Persian Gulf.
When global supply tightens, most of the country pays more, while California pays more and faces a tighter supply.
The recent ceasefire may have calmed futures markets, but the underlying dynamics remain. Global markets determine price. Local infrastructure determines impact.
BRIAN MACCOLL
Pelham, New York
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