As Netanyahu prepares for elections, his foes in Iran and Lebanon could get a vote

By Josef Federman - Associated Press - Saturday, March 21, 2026

JERUSALEM | Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will soon have to decide when to hold Israel’s next elections

But with war raging on multiple fronts and no end in sight, Israel’s enemies in Iran and Lebanon may help make that decision for him.

The stakes could hardly be higher: A victory will add to his legacy as Israel’s longest-ruling leader and fend off, if not quash altogether, calls for a reckoning over the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks that triggered 2½ years of war across the region.

A defeat risks turning him into the highest-profile political casualty of that attack — the deadliest in Israel’s history — which still casts a long shadow over the country’s psyche and already has led to a string of high-profile resignations and firings.

Here is a closer look at what’s at stake for Mr. Netanyahu, and how the wars with Iran and Hezbollah could help determine his fate.

Mr. Netanyahu’s government is in the final months of its four-year term and is required to hold elections by the end of October. But Mr. Netanyahu has the ability to dissolve the governing coalition before then and call early elections. Israeli governments rarely last their full terms.

PHOTOS: As Netanyahu prepares for elections, his foes in Iran and Lebanon could get a vote

With this deadline looming, Mr. Netanyahu can choose a date when he thinks he and his religious and nationalist partners have the best chance to win.

Since elections are scheduled three months ahead of time, he could move now to schedule a vote in late June, just before the summer vacation season, or wait until the fall.

A quick campaign and decisive victory over Iran could boost Mr. Netanyahu’s public standing and give him the confidence to call an early election. He could boast of Israel’s military power and the close ties with President Trump that made this war possible, while claiming to have reshaped the region to Israel’s advantage after the Oct. 7 attack.

But three weeks into the war, that scenario looks increasingly unlikely.

Iran continues to fire missiles at Israel each day, disrupting the lives of millions of anxious and exhausted voters. Israel’s war with Hezbollah militants in Lebanon is intensifying, and with Iran disrupting the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf and upending the global economy, Mr. Trump has given no indication when the war may end. Members of the “America First” wing of the Republican Party have begun to accuse Israel of dragging the U.S. into a needless war.

Recent opinion polls in Israel indicate that while Israelis overwhelmingly support the war, Mr. Netanyahu and his political coalition don’t appear to be benefiting.

In this environment, there is little incentive for Mr. Netanyahu to push up the election date, said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank.

“It doesn’t seem like there’s any remarkable change in Israeli public opinion,” he said. “He’d rather buy more time and exhaust the full term that is available to him.”