President Trump’s summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week will be long on ceremony but short on deliverables — with potential risks for American security, analysts predict.
The meetings in Beijing come with a ceasefire in the U.S.-Iran war that the president says is on “life support” and with the looming possibility of renewed U.S. strikes on Iran, a key Chinese ally and energy source.
The visit to Beijing, the first for Mr. Trump since 2017, will end weeks of presidential social media commentary praising the Chinese leader and declaring in one post that the Trump-Xi summit will be a “monumental event.”
Mr. Trump, scheduled to meet with Mr. Xi on Thursday and Friday and attend a formal state dinner, will seek to address key American concerns, including tensions over Taiwan, trade practices, Chinese links to deadly fentanyl trafficking and Chinese purchases of U.S. farm products and Boeing jetliners.
Anna Kelly, deputy White House press secretary, said U.S.-China relations have been refocused under the president toward rebuilding safety, security and prosperity for Americans.
“President Trump’s upcoming meeting with President Xi will advance these goals with a clear-eyed view of the economic and security realities of today,” she told reporters.
The two leaders will discuss setting up a U.S.-China Board of Trade and a U.S.-China Board of Investment to improve exchanges in those areas, she said. Additional agreements will be sought for the aerospace, agriculture and energy sectors in both countries.
“These agreements will further rebalance trade with China while putting American workers, farmers and families first and safeguarding U.S. economic strength and national security,” Ms. Kelly said.
The Trump administration made a sharp about-face on China policy last year after Beijing retaliated for peak U.S. tariffs of 148% on Chinese imports. The Chinese announced they were restricting vital rare earth mineral exports needed for both military and civilian U.S. industries.
A truce was reached in October at a meeting between the two leaders in South Korea that set the stage for the Beijing summit this week. A reciprocal U.S. visit by Mr. Xi is expected later this year.
The Trump administration’s China policy backpedal was most notable in statements from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, traditionally a hardliner on China.
During his Senate nomination hearing in January 2025, Mr. Rubio said China posed the single greatest threat to American national security. But in December, he dropped references to threats from China and instead called for responsible statecraft in the effort to work together with the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese government.
For China, Mr. Xi wants relief from punishing U.S. tariffs that are compounding already serious economic problems. He also is expected to seek U.S. concessions on Taiwan that Chinese officials have called the most important “core” interest in relations with Washington.
Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Mr. Xi is expected to push for the loosening of export controls on advanced U.S. semiconductors and to scale back support for Taiwan.
“The president should make it crystal clear that America’s commitment to upholding Taiwan’s sovereignty and independence is nonnegotiable,” Mr. Pompeo said.
Also, Mr. Xi needs to be taken to task for malign Chinese activities, including supplying Iran with the weapons used to attack U.S. forces, rampant technology and intellectual property theft from the United States, and Beijing’s role in driving the fentanyl crisis, he said.
At the Chinese Foreign Ministry, spokesman Guo Jiakun confirmed the presidential visit for the first time on Monday and said Mr. Xi would conduct “in-depth exchanges of views with President Trump on major issues concerning China-U.S. relations and world peace and development.”
Summit diplomacy is a key to guiding U.S.-China relations, he said, noting that China is ready to “expand cooperation and manage differences.”
Asked if Mr. Trump will press China on its approach to Iran, Mr. Guo said China “will continue playing a positive role in promoting peace talks and bringing about an end to the conflict.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said recently the administration wants China to play a greater role in securing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
China so far has balked at supporting the U.S.-led effort to maintain freedom of navigation through the strategic waterway.
Chinese state media reported topics to be raised by Beijing during the talks will include climate governance, anti-narcotics coordination, artificial intelligence regulations, macroeconomic stabilization and crisis management.
Taiwan arms sales on agenda
Former Deputy Secretary of State Kurt M. Campbell said the summit could result in a sharp policy shift in U.S.-China relations with the modern-day version of ancient “single combat” between two political leaders.
“Much will be decided by the leaders themselves, and the key factors in play are less the merits or technical criteria associated with each bilateral agenda item and more the characteristics and experience of the two men,” Mr. Campbell told The Washington Times, echoing a recent article in Foreign Affairs.
“Trump, especially, is a wildcard, and some worry that his unpredictable China policy may inadvertently lead the United States into unilateral concessions and unintentional appeasement.”
Mr. Campbell described Mr. Trump’s ambiguous policies toward China as shifting between views of China as an admired partner and a nefarious enemy.
Summit talks could result in undermining American arms sales to key regional ally Taiwan, he said.
The president signaled in comments to reporters Monday that Taiwan remains a flashpoint with the potential to become a crisis similar to the war between Russia and Ukraine.
“I don’t think it’ll happen. I think we’ll be fine,” he said. “I have a very good relationship with President Xi and he knows I don’t want that to happen.”
Mr. Trump said that other than during the COVID-19 pandemic, he has had a good relationship with the Chinese leader he called a “great gentleman” and “an amazing man,” though he acknowledged that Mr. Xi rules China with an “iron fist.”
“I look forward to being there,” he said, “A lot of good things can happen now,” he said.
Asked if there will be concessions on Taiwan during the talks, a senior administration official said, “We don’t expect to see any changes in U.S. policy going forward and I’ll just leave it at that.”
Daniel Blumenthal, a China expert with the American Enterprise Institute, predicted Mr. Xi will push hard for U.S. concessions on Taiwan.
The Chinese leader will try to have Mr. Trump ascribe to an official Beijing narrative in opposing Taiwan independence or supporting “unification.”
“Chairman Xi will likely try and link Taiwan to increased purchases of U.S. goods and products,” Mr. Blumenthal said.
Mr. Trump and his advisers should hold fast to current U.S. language that the United States opposes unilateral changes to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, he said.
“Even slight changes to U.S. policy on Taiwan at the moment would be a blow to deterrence and would undermine morale in Taiwan and Japan at a critical time,” Mr. Blumenthal said.
Mr. Xi is expected to raise Taiwan more than the U.S. side during the summit with the majority of discussion focused on energy and Iran, Mr. Trump said.
Iran and China have a strategic partnership mainly involving Chinese oil purchases and sales of Chinese weapons and military equipment.
Iranian oil shipments have been sharply disrupted in recent weeks by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a U.S. blockade of Iranian shipping.
Dealmakers delegation
To promote American business deals, Mr. Trump is bringing a delegation of business leaders along on Air Force One.
Those traveling with the president include Tesla founder and CEO Elon Musk, Apple CEO Tim Cook, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, a White House official told CNBC.
Notably missing from the high-powered executive group is Jensen Huang, CEO of the artificial intelligence chipmaker Nvidia, who in the past successfully lobbied the president to relax export controls on high-powered AI chips.
China’s monopoly on rare earth minerals is also on Mr. Trump’s agenda.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who took part in preparations for the summit, told Congress last month that a key goal for the United States is to seek assurance of continued access to rare earth minerals that most of the world buys from China for industries.
The administration is working on alternative sources for the minerals but setting up new supply chains will take years, leaving the country vulnerable to a cutoff.
China agreed at the October summit in South Korea to hold off on the restrictions in exchange for the U.S. easing some tariffs.
A senior administration official said to maintain “stability” in relations, an extension of the trade war truce — lower U.S. tariff rates and a delay in Chinese export controls on special minerals — will be discussed.
Mr. Greer said a second major goal in Beijing is following through on earlier agreed Chinese purchases of U.S. goods, including agricultural products, commercial aircraft and medical devices.
Chinese fentanyl trade to be raised
The trade representative said Chinese involvement in the illicit fentanyl trade also will be raised.
Some progress has been made on the issue and fentanyl overdose deaths in the U.S. have declined, but “there’s a lot more to be done and certainly the Chinese have a lot more they can do on that front,” he said in House subcommittee testimony April 16.
Customs and Border Protection seizures of illicit fentanyl have declined from a peak of 26,718 pounds of the drug seized in 2023 to 11,486 pounds last year. However, between January and March, CBP seized 2,900 pounds of fentanyl – 19% more than during the same period last year.
China expert Gordon Chang said Mr. Xi and the leaders in the Chinese Communist Party system are expected to take — at least publicly — a hard-line stance at the summit based on worries inside the country.
“China’s regime is cutting links with the outside and, inside the new ’information cocoon,’ is propagating absurd narratives about the rest of the world, especially about the impending failure of the United States,” Mr. Chang said.
“The regime, therefore, has been amplifying ’the American kill line’ narrative. This means Xi cannot be seen inside China to make too many compromises.”
China is expected to make promises on trade and other issues but likely will not follow through, he said.
The January 2020 Phase One trade deal, even with its self-enforcement mechanisms, was not enforced, Mr. Chang said.
Mr. Trump should confront Mr. Xi with threats of additional 50% tariffs on countries supplying arms to Iran and the Treasury Department should crack down on widespread Chinese money laundering for drug trafficking in the U.S., he said.
“The emerging view among observers is that the summit will not change much between China and the U.S. I think anything can happen when Trump is in deal mode,” Mr. Chang said.
Yu Sun, director of the China Center at the Stimson Center, said both sides will get some advantages during the meeting including an announcement on trade that could boost Mr. Trump’s domestic standing.
“The wild card is Taiwan,” she said.
China is expected to offer “rewards” should Mr. Trump say what Mr. Xi wants on Taiwan. However, what the president says on the issue does not need to be seen as a policy shift, Mr. Sun said.
“This will be a grand, high-profile trip and the Chinese want to build good chemistry between the two presidents,” Mr. Sun said.
Artificial intelligence trap?
On artificial intelligence, the two leaders will discuss security concerns regarding the emerging technology that both nations are rapidly developing.
“We want to take this opportunity with the leaders meeting to open up a conversation and to see if we should establish a channel of communication on AI matters,” a senior administration official said.
Matt Pottinger, a China expert, said Beijing has successfully co-opted American technologists, think-tankers and socialists into believing Washington should share advanced AI technology with China in the name of “safety.”
“Beijing’s real goal is to leapfrog the United States,” said Mr. Pottinger, Mr. Trump’s deputy national security adviser from 2019 to 2021 and now chairman of the China program at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.
“Xi will try this narrative out directly on Trump this week, but the administration is more guarded against it than it was at the last summit in October,” he said.
Human rights also will be discussed at the summit, according to Mr. Rubio.
Mr. Trump said he planned to raise the case of imprisoned Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai in his talks with Mr. Xi. But he seemed to undermine his appeal for a release for Mr. Lai, who was convicted on questionable Chinese legal charges, such as colluding with foreign forces, under a 2020 Chinese national security law.
The president said Mr. Lai, a staunch advocate for press and other freedoms, caused “a lot of bedlam.”
“Jimmy Lai, he caused lots of turmoil for China. He tried to do the right thing. He wasn’t successful, went to jail. And people would like him out. And I’d like to see him get out too. So I’ll bring him up again. I have brought him up.”
Mr. Trump also will raise the case of imprisoned unofficial Zion Church Pastor Jin Mingri, who human rights advocates say was imprisoned on bogus legal charges.
Retired Navy Capt. Jim Fanell said, based on official Chinese government statements on the summit, it is clear Mr. Xi will seek major concessions from the president.
“President Trump should be aware of these traps and avoid making any agreements or comments that would give Xi what he seeks,” he said.
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