President Trump’s proposed Golden Dome missile shield could cost $1.2 trillion over 20 years, including a massive up-front cost to deploy the cutting-edge space-based missile interceptors widely seen as crucial to the project’s success, according to a new report released this week.
The Congressional Budget Office study is one of the most comprehensive looks at the potential costs of the Golden Dome, which Mr. Trump wants operational by 2028. The CBO conceded that estimating the costs is difficult given the lack of public knowledge about the Golden Dome architecture — many of those details remain highly classified — and outstanding questions about whether it will be designed to literally defend every square mile of the continental U.S. from potential missile onslaughts launched by China, Russia or other actors.
The CBO study assumed four layers of missile interception: One in space, two wide-area layers on the ground, and separate, smaller regional sector layers that could add extra protection for cities such as Washington, or for highly valuable military facilities or national infrastructure.
The ground-based layers would likely rely heavily on existing missile defense capabilities, including Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, anti-ballistic missile defense batteries, while more complex space-based capabilities would be developed and incorporated into the broader system over time.
That layered structure, the CBO said, “would provide the capacity to simultaneously engage multiple missiles launched by an adversary,” as each layer could operate independently if an enemy attack disrupted interaction with national command and control.
That kind of comprehensive national missile defense (NMD) system, the most sweeping ever built by any nation on Earth, could cost $1.2 trillion over two decades, CBO said.
“Of the $1.2 trillion amount, acquisition costs for the notional system would total just over $1 trillion,” the report said. “That amount includes costs for the system’s major components — namely, the interceptor layers and a space-based missile warning and tracking system. It also includes costs for general, ongoing research and development and for improvements in the system’s integration and performance.”
The rest of the price tag comes from annual operations and support to keep the Golden Dome up and running, the study said.
It’s difficult to know precisely whether the CBO report conflicts with the Trump administration’s own estimates. The White House initially estimated the entire Golden Dome project would cost about $175 billion over three years. Gen. Michael A. Guetlein, the U.S. Space Force’s vice chief of space operations and the administration’s point man on the Golden Dome, recently put the price tag at $185 billion to account for an additional $10 billion worth of space-based systems.
Only about $23 billion has actually been allocated to the program so far. The White House’s 2027 budget request includes another $17.1 billion, bringing the total amount to about $40 billion so far.
The biggest question is how much money the space-based interceptor portion of the program requires in the short term. The CBO estimated that the space-based component — a 7,800-satellite constellation capable of engaging at least 10 intercontinental ballistic missiles launched simultaneously — would cost $723 billion just to acquire and deploy. Annual operational costs would drive that cost even higher.
Ground- or sea-based missile defense systems would be far cheaper to acquire and implement, costing about $139 billion.
Even with all of those systems in place, the CBO said it’s still unlikely that the entire U.S. could be fully protected from any conceivable missile threat.
“Although the notional NMD system analyzed by CBO would be far more capable than defenses the United States fields today, it would not be an impenetrable shield or be able to fully counter a large attack of the sort that Russia or China might be able to launch,” the report said.
There are also questions about whether Gen. Guetlein will truly have the autonomy and sole decision-making power needed to make the proposal a reality within the tight time frame laid out by Mr. Trump.
With numerous military branches, federal agencies, Pentagon offices and powerful defense contractors deeply involved, some defense insiders fear the Golden Dome could become a victim of its own ambition.
“Will we get there in three years? Not with the current bureaucracy. But they gave Gen. Mike Guetlein all the authority and responsibility to do that. Now will they let him?” said retired Air Force Gen. John E. Hyten, who served as vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and commander of U.S. Strategic Command, among other prominent military roles.
“If they don’t let him, you’ll not get there in three years. We won’t get there in six years, we won’t get there in 10 years,” Mr. Hyten told The Washington Times during a media roundtable at the recent Space Symposium conference in Colorado.
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