Online retailers are holding their breath

The online shopping industry has its fingers hovering over the panic button but probably won’t push it until the dust settles from the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

The preliminary reports on weekend traffic and sales for online retailers are not encouraging, matching predictions at traditional brick-and-mortar stores. Chicago digital marketing firm comScore said Sunday that online spending on Thanksgiving Day and the subsequent Friday rose just 2 percent over the same two days a year ago.

Electronic-commerce spending declined the first 23 days of November, by 4 percent, compared with the same period last year, leaving many retailers to hang their hopes on the holiday weekend, according to comScore.

“All of the signs are very negative,” said Sucharita Mulpuru, a retail analyst with Boston-based Forrester Research.

While brick-and-mortar stores traditionally enjoy some of their highest traffic of the season on the Friday after Thanksgiving, dubbed “Black Friday,” a spike in online shopping activity typically occurs the following Monday - largely the result of people going back to work and shopping on office computers. The National Retail Federation (NRF) in 2005 declared the day Cyber Monday.

Consumers appear to be holding back this year, and retail analysts hope it’s because they are shopping around and waiting for the best deals. “Consumers are procrastinators,” Miss Mulpuru said.

Online retailers’ weekend traffic and sales will shape the marketing plans that follow, including deep discounts and free shipping.

“This is very much a very tactical Christmas,” said David Fry, president of Fry Inc., an electronic-commerce design and development company based in Ann Arbor, Mich.

Promotional e-mails were sent earlier than usual, he said, and retailers will watch sales closely.

“No one’s thinking strategically about next year yet. It’s all about the holidays,” he said.

Retailers had holiday marketing strategies in place in August and September, before the worst of the economic downturn. “The decisions and plans made in August probably are no longer valid,” Mr. Fry said.

During this unusually frantic holiday season, retailers are making quick decisions about advertising and promotions. Inventories were set months ago, leaving sites to find the best ways to sell what they have.

“The classic weapon during the holidays is free shipping,” Mr. Fry said. Many retailers are expected to lure shoppers to their Web sites by offering free shipping, often on minimum purchases.

Brick-and-mortar shops were able to attract plenty of shoppers on Black Friday with huge discounts, but preliminary reports suggest that buying was limited and stores weren’t profiting. According to preliminary figures released Saturday by ShopperTrak RCT, a research firm that tracks total retail sales at more than 50,000 outlets, sales rose 3 percent to $10.6 billion on Friday compared with the Black Friday of a year ago.

Online retailers will be watching their daily and possibly hourly sales figures to gauge whether their efforts are working. “You get your report card every evening,” Miss Mulpuru said.

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