THOMSON: After Mumbai, what next?

OPINION:

COMMENTARY:

There is no downplaying the dangerous significance of the attacks by Muslim fanatics on multiple major targets in Mumbai, formerly and still known as Bombay. Moreover, there is no denying the terrorists’ strategic and tactical brilliance.

And it is impossible to exaggerate, much less predict, the impact of the violence on India, the region and the world. Far more than the tragic death and maiming of more than 500 persons occurred: The stage has been set for multifaceted mischief in India, South Asia and beyond.

With several terrorists connected to the Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorist group and the Pakistan army’s powerful, extremist-infiltrated Inter-Services Intelligence agency [ISI], a strong reaction from India is virtually certain.

Respected French journalist Bernard-Henri Levy’s revelation of A.Q. Khan, former head of Pakistan’s nuclear development program, has maintained close relations with Lashkar-e-Taiba makes a pacific response virtually impossible. Mr. Khan, who sold nuclear secrets to Iran, North Korea and very probably al Qaeda, is hospitalized in Karachi, but otherwise free.

All this is precisely in keeping with the terrorist strategy. In short, whatever New Delhi’s reaction, it comes at a terrible time for the government in Islamabad.

Washington, New Delhi and a host of other capitals have watched with growing concern as Pakistan has become the latest, greatest threat to regional - and world - stability. Pakistan’s economy, on the upswing for eight years, has been in decline since early 2007, creating major popular discontent. Simultaneously, Muslim fanatics have sharply increased car bombings and assassinations - including the murder of the country’s most popular politician, former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. The government is at or near its weakest point since the country was established in 1947.

Nevertheless, for its very political survival, the Indian government must take strong measures, with impossible-to-predict multiple negative consequences. Among them:

— Additional lethal incidents launched by Muslim as well as Hindu fanatics. The Mumbai mayhem was so well planned, it is entirely possible others will be launched. Indian authorities have been remarkably successful in keeping the Hindu majority from reacting to recurring and increasing Muslim violence throughout the country, but the murder and wounding of more than 500 people, mostly Indians, could be the tipping point.

— Follow-on terrorism in major centers including New Delhi, Bangalore, Calcutta, and the hotly disputed Jammu and Kashmir region. Relentless Muslim extremist assaults, principally on Indian government facilities in Kashmir over the years, have triggered three wars between the countries.

— Outbreak of war, escalating to the use of nuclear weapons, which both countries have had in growing abundance since 1998.

— Redeployment of Pakistani forces from the anarchic North-West Frontier Province [NWFP] bordering on Afghanistan, to defend the Indian border, just when the Obama administration could be stepping up efforts to break the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan. Major Pakistani military elements long resisted moving against the Afghani Taliban, nurtured for more than 20 years by the army’s ISI, who have major safe haven bases in the NWFP. A major troop movement could be the perfect excuse to, among other things, impede a fresh U.S. offensive in Afghanistan.

— Collapse of the already weak Pakistani civilian government, with radicals gaining control of some or all of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, estimated at between 55 and 100 weapons. Owing to sharply divided loyalties between moderate and extremist officers, the country’s strongest institution - the military - could be unable to control the political situation and the once-secure nuclear weapons sites.

The above represents a partial list of possible negative ramifications arising from five terror-filled days in Mumbai. India’s commercial and financial capital, home to the world’s largest stock exchange and some 13 million souls, has been seriously shaken, as has the entire country. More films are made in Mumbai’s famed Bollywood than anywhere in the world, and the impact on this major industry could be significant. Long one of India’s leading tourism centers, the mayhem involving its two most famous hotels cannot be attractive to future travelers.

After nearly a decade of dynamic growth, will investor confidence collapse and exacerbate India’s already declining economy? Will consumers, having sharply cut back spending as inflation spiked in recent months, keep an even tighter hold on their funds?

Years of terrorist attacks have had an incalculably large impact on every level of Indian society. Muslim extremists have attacked across the length and breadth of India - a few include New Delhi, the capital; Mumbai, the commercial/financial center; Bangalore the high-tech hub; Varanasi, a major Hindu religious pilgrim destination; Jaipur, a popular tourist venue.

It is difficult to imagine continued restraint, especially if the government does not take strong defensive and retributive action. Will a significant number of nearly 1 billion Hindus turn on the 150 million Muslim minority (the world’s third-largest Muslim community after Indonesia and Pakistan)?

The recent attack by Pakistan’s Army against Lashkar-e-taiba could help mitigate India’s response. But some things are certain.

Unless India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his weak coalition government take strong steps, the opposition will be strengthened and very probably win national parliament (Lok Sabha) elections, due before May 2009. Led by the militant BJP party, a victorious opposition would very possibly be far more aggressive than the current government.

Strong action by the Singh administration would undoubtedly provoke a major conflict between the countries, and prove an especially difficult decision for the prime minister. who has worked diligently during his term to strengthen relations with Pakistan. During a meeting at his official residence, Mr. Singh told me his proudest political accomplishments were liberalizing the Indian economy as finance minister in the early 1990s, and the progressive normalizing of Pakistani relations as prime minister.

Unfortunately, there is more. Iran has shown itself to be very interested in South Asian political developments, and the country has worked especially hard to radicalize the 20 percent Shi’ite minority in Pakistan. Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants have trained hundreds of Pakistani and Indian Muslims. Moreover, it is not unreasonable to assume nuclear-hungry mullahs in Tehran would be delighted to gain access to Pakistan’s weaponry.

What next after Bombay’s bombs? Impossible to say, but one thing is sure: Life on the Indian Subcontinent will be far from peaceful for some time to come.

John R. Thomson, a longtime resident of Asia, is a frequent visitor to the Indian Subcontinent.