WETZSTEIN: Film casts a chill on family's future

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By Cheryl Wetzstein

Part two of two

The seats on an empty swing set drift in the breeze. A young woman attempts to play on a seesaw — by herself.

These scenes illustrate the message of "Demographic Winter: The Decline of the Human Family," an independent 2008 film that says we are moving toward a world in which children will be rare and economic distress will be plentiful.

Already, 90 countries or localities have subpar fertility rates (i.e., below the 2.1 children per woman replacement level), according to the CIA's World Factbook. Thirty-six have rates less than 1.5.

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Faltering birthrates are "at the core of our economic difficulties," says "Demographic Winter" producer Barry McLerran.

A population with lots of old people — but few young people — means economic stagnation, loss of innovation and social upheaval, scholars explain in the documentary.

In one 2007 interview, for instance, economist Harry Dent showed how baby boomers' demand for (big, new) housing would peak around 2008 and then start dropping. This is because people have predictable spending patterns based on their age and other characteristics, Mr. Dent said.