Nuke tests hint N. Korea succession looms

North Korea’s second test of an atomic bomb Monday morning prompted speculation by analysts and U.S. military experts that an ailing Kim Jong-il is relying on hard-line generals to prepare for succession - reportedly to one of three sons.

Hours after the underground explosion, the North launched three ballistic missiles that are capable of carrying nuclear warheads to all of South Korea and much of Japan.

In testing a nuclear weapon, North Korea flouted more than a decade of efforts by the United States, South Korea and other nations in the region to establish a quasi-normal relationship with a nation known for its isolation even as millions die of malnutrition.

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Successive shipments of food, oil and other economic aid, followed by threats of economic sanctions, have created a situation in which belligerent acts such as Monday’s tests have often elicited more offers of economic aid.

But Monday’s actions may have moved the North’s belligerence to a new level, said Michael Breen, a Seoul-based analyst and author of a biography of Kim Jong-il.

“This appears to be more than the usual North Korean antics and suggests all may not be well in Pyongyang,” Mr. Breen said.

Jim Walsh, a Korea specialist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said Monday’s tests plus last month’s test of a multistage rocket are tied to the issue of succession.

Kim Jong-il inherited power when his father, North Korean founder Kim Il-sung, died in 1994. In doing so, he established the first dynasty in the communist world.

Since Mr. Kim reportedly suffered a stroke last year, speculation has centered on his three sons, one of whom is expected to eventually take over.

With succession in mind, “the military members of the [North Korean] National Defense Committee are exerting themselves,” Mr. Walsh said.

Mr. Walsh also noted that China, North Korea’s only remaining ally and a veto-wielding member of the Security Council, said it was “resolutely opposed” to the test.

The criticism was unusual for China, which has been the strongest supporter of the six-nation nuclear talks begun during the George W. Bush administration.

Mr. Walsh said, however, that China was unlikely to push too hard when the Security Council considers additional sanctions.

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