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Mr. Weprin got into hot water with Orthodox Jewish voters in the district, which spans parts of Queens and Brooklyn, because of his support of a same-sex marriage bill this year while serving in the state Legislature. But because this voting bloc is already conservative, it’s uncertain whether they would have supported Mr. Weprin - an Orthodox Jew - anyway, Mr. Greenberg said.

“I’m not sure he could have ever won a substantial number of their votes,” he said.

Rather, general voter frustration over the slumping economy, a poor get-out-the-vote campaign and ill-advised spending of campaign money on TV ads by Mr. Weprin had at least as much to do with the election’s outcome, Mr. Greenberg said.

“You had a really bad campaign for the Democrats and a very effective campaign by the Republicans,” he said. “In terms of persuasion of the voters, the Turner campaign won that campaign.”

Mr. Weprin narrowly carried the more Democratic Queens section of his district but was hammered in the Brooklyn precincts by more than 30 percentage points.