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Most analysts say they are seeing little sales impact from the “fiscal cliff” negotiations between Congress and the White House. The term refers to sharp government spending cuts and tax increases scheduled to start Jan. 1 unless an agreement is reached to cut the budget deficit. Economists say that those measures, if implemented, could push the U.S. economy back into a recession.

Mr. Schuster said the fiscal cliff and a possible recession are among the risks that could derail the auto sales recovery next year.