The group’s main strategy appears to be to lay low and avoid aggravating the volatile fault line between the Sunni and Shiite communities, which each make up about a third of Lebanon’s population of 4 million.
Lebanon’s sectarian tensions already have been worsened by the crisis in Syria, where the overwhelmingly Sunni opposition is struggling to oust a regime dominated by Alawites, an offshoot of Shiite Islam.
Regional shifts also weigh on Hezbollah. The so-called Arab Spring sweeping the Middle East so far has led to the rise of conservative Sunni Islamists deeply resentful of Shiite powerhouse Iran and its allies, Syria and Hezbollah.
“Hezbollah has accepted that this is going to be a protracted crisis in Syria and by virtue of that, the group has been much readier to calibrate and reduce its footprint,” said Aram Nerguizian, a visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Over the course of Syria’s 16-month uprising, Mr. Nerguizian and other analysts have noted a subtle shift in Hezbollah’s public position. Early on, Sheik Nasrallah embraced Mr. Assad, casting him as a reformer in speeches that infuriated Syrian protesters. He has somewhat modified his stance, calling on both sides to cease the violence and engage in dialogue.
The 44-year-old, bespectacled cleric with a long bushy beard was a little-known preacher at the Bilal Bin Rabah Mosque in Sidon. Now he is openly challenging and taunting Hezbollah like few have dared before, even taking aim at Sheik Nasrallah.
Sheik Assir calls his protest camp an “uprising” against Hezbollah’s weapons, aimed at bringing the powerful arsenal of the group’s guerrilla force under the control of the government. Hezbollah, the country’s strongest armed force, has resisted pressure to do so for years.
Sheik Assir set up the camp blocking a main road in the southern coastal city of Sidon. The city is the gateway to Hezbollah’s traditional stronghold in the south and links the group's command center in Beirut’s southern suburbs with front-line villages in the south.
Sunni bitterness still runs deep over clashes in May 2008, when Hezbollah gunmen swept through Sunni neighborhoods in Beirut after the pro-Western government of that time tried to dismantle the group’s crucial telecommunications network. More than 80 people were killed.
A U.N.-backed special tribunal has accused four Hezbollah members in the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, Lebanon’s most powerful Sunni leader. Hezbollah says the tribunal is a tool of Israel and the West.
Hezbollah still is Lebanon’s single most influential player with considerable support among Shiites and unprecedented political clout. It holds a dominant role in Beirut’s government and the prime minister is an ally, after the fall of the previous government sidelined Hezbollah’s opponents, the U.S.- and Western-backed factions led by Hariri’s son Saad. Its extensive arsenal of weapons and rockets is virtually untouchable for the moment.
By Douglas Holtz-Eakin
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