Four analysts at the Congressional Research Service made that assessment, citing intelligence reports and the words of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
The CRS report, delivered to members of Congress, makes the point that ISIL is a well-organized, well-funded terrorist group with definite goals to take territory and kill people it considers nonbelievers.
“Several leading representatives of the U.S. intelligence community have stated that [ISIL] maintains training camps in Iraq and Syria, has the intent to attack the United States and is reportedly recruiting and training individuals to do so,” says the June 20 report.
It quotes al-Baghdadi threatening the U.S.: “Know, O defender of the Cross, that a proxy war will not help you in the Levant, just as it will not help you in Iraq. Soon, you will be in direct conflict — God permitting — against your will.”
What makes ISIL even more dangerous is its ability to raise, and steal, money. Wealthy Sunni sheiks in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar have funneled money to ISIL to help it bring down the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad, who is an Alawite, an offshoot of Shia Islam. Mr. Assad aligns himself with Shiite-dominated Iran, and its proxy in Lebanon, the militant group Hezbollah.
Oil-rich, Sunni-dominated Gulf states consider the Shiite-led regimes a threat.
ISIL also is coercing money from businesses in the cities it conquers. Media reports say it may have stolen hundreds of millions of dollars from banks in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul.
It now controls many of the Sunni-majority towns in the north of Iraq and is expanding its conquest in Anbar province, including the cities of Fallujah and Ramadi.
The Shiite-dominated government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki mostly has watched and retreated, unable to field army units that can blunt or reverse the assaults.
“[ISIL] attempts to assert control over the cities of Fallujah and Ramadi in Iraq’s Al Anbar province, and its June 2014 offensive in northern Iraq underscored the group’s lethality and ability to conduct combat operations and manage partnerships with local groups in multiple areas over large geographic distances,” the CRS report states.
Robert Maginnis, a retired Army officer and military analyst, said ISIL is planting the seeds for attacks on the West.
“It already has many hundreds of jihadists with Western nation passports,” Mr. Maginnis said. “Those battle-proven jihadists will eventually return to their Western homelands to carry on the jihad using the violent ways learned in Syria and Iraq. And now that [ISIL] controls a giant swath of the Middle East, the Western jihadists have a training platform, financing and [a] cheerleading state sponsor.”
Without U.S. guidance and intelligence, Iraqi security forces have shown themselves unable to deal with the new al Qaeda fighter influx. The invaders and Iraqi Sunni allies waged a new war based on terrorism, unleashing waves of vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices. The remnants of al Qaeda in Iraq have now hooked up with ISIL.