OPINION:
Among scholars World War I was a turning point in modern history. The war elicited a Communist Party ruling a nation, the war was the seed-bed for the rise of Nazism, and the war led to the dismemberment of the Ottoman empire and the Austro-Hungarian empire. Clearly, the postwar global map was altered. History was bisected into pre- and post-World War I.
Alas, we are in another turning point in this new century. Roughly a hundred years from World War I, the P5+1 deal has bisected 21st century history into pre- and post-Iran negotiations. The world, as we have known it, has been interred, replaced by a series of monumental changes.
Pre-Iran deal will seem halcyonic compared to what awaits us. Just as pre-World War I was considered an age of innocence, pre-Iran deal will be thought of as the era of denial. The globe will not be same again as the tectonic changes come into focus.
First, Iran will be regarded as a “strong horse” in the Middle East. Not only does Iran have sufficient capability for a bomb at a time of its choosing, the lifting of sanctions will energize its economy and expand its regional aspirations.
Second, the state system that the Sykes and Picot Agreement helped to create a century ago no longer exists, creating a Middle East map that is unrecognizable. A power vacuum emerging from the U.S. regional withdrawal has opened a Pandora’s box as Islamic extremists, subjugated ethnic groups and war lords compete for the contested space in Libya, Syria and Iraq.
Third, new alliances have emerged with Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and possibly Turkey joining Israel in opposition to Shia expansion through Iranian military activity. The U.S. rapprochement with Iran has alarmed the Sunni states and Israel, leading to a belief that American military strength to counteract hostile regional forces is no longer an option, in fact, cannot even be summoned.
Forth, Russia under Vladimir Putin’s leadership has inserted its military into a dominant role in the eastern Mediterranean with the U.S. retreat. Taking the lead in the war against the Islamic State, Russia has developed a “coordination cell” in Iraq that includes the Iraqi army and the Iranian Quds. Hence, Russia is the presumptive “stabilizing” influence in the region with motives that are not benign.
For Mr. Putin, any form of chaos that results in high oil prices is desirable. Therefore, it is plausible that the real prize is not the Russian footprint in Syria, but an influence over the Saudi Arabian oil fields. Moreover, Russian military presence in Syria influences Israeli ability to retaliate when Hezbollah and Hamas engage in missile attacks. Israel understands its hostile neighbors, but it does not want to go to war with Russia — if that can be avoided.
If Iran is the emerging strong horse in the Middle East, Russia is its jockey. The cooperation between the two states does not bode well for Sunni states. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently met with Mr. Putin, pointing out — one can only assume — that Israel is obliged to defend itself but in so doing it does not want to encounter Russian forces on the other side of the military divide.
As Mr. Putin sees it, the “humiliation” the Soviet Union faced in 1989 with the dismemberment of its empire must be restored. His chessboard moves in Crimea, eastern Ukraine, his challenges to NATO, his humiliation of the United States and his intrusion with military force into Syria are efforts to restore the “near abroad,” the empire he saw dismembered. Moreover, he can accomplish his goals with the U.S. enfeebled by a president who can only engage in wishful thinking and doesn’t possess a scintilla of strategic awareness. This is the Russian moment, a point both Mr. Putin and Middle East leaders recognize.
Mr. Putin presents himself to the U.N. as the man who can save the Middle East from entropy. Perhaps he can, but at a price that may be unacceptable. The face he is wearing at the moment belies real intentions.
I am reminded of a quote from Nathaniel Hawthorne’s “The Scarlet Letter”: “No man, for any considerable period, can wear one face to himself and another to the multitude, without finally getting bewildered as to which may be true.” So far, Mr. Putin has pulled it off. The question, of course, is when will the mask of President Obama be removed.
• Herbert London is president of the London Center for Policy Research.
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