Late entry could doom Thompson

Fred Thompson joined the Republican field yesterday already vying for the lead in one early presidential primary state, but analysts say as a first-time national candidate, he may have entered too late.

“The ‘new kid on the block” gets a lot of attention, but can he prove himself so quickly to be everyone’s friend in Minneapolis-St. Paul?” said Republican consultant Sal Russo, referring to the site of the September 2008 Republican National Convention.

“It even took Ronald Reagan his third try in 1980 before he could win the nomination.”

The former Tennessee senator and actor had been polling in the top tier of Republican hopefuls long before his official candidacy, which he announced yesterday on his Web site and in a campaign visit to Iowa.

“Now to my Republican friends, I point out that in 1992, we were down after a Clinton victory. In 1994, our conservative principles led us to a comeback and majority control of the Congress,” he said.

“Now you don’t want to have to come back from another Clinton victory. Our country needs us to win next year, and I am ready to lead that effort.”

Mr. Thompson leads the field, albeit by one percentage point, in a recent South Carolina poll done by Clemson University, and runs second behind former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani in national polls. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads in Iowa and New Hampshire polls of likely Republican voters.

As for whom among the top Republican contenders Mr. Thompson’s candidacy most threatens, pollster John Zogby said the answer is nobody.

“He will shave a few points off of Romney and a few off of Giuliani in the short term, and some from the undecided column. But he has been a very visible non-candidate, who has been discussed a lot already,” Mr. Zogby said.

“Upon more scrutiny, he may not be the Great Conservative Hope, and his stump speeches haven’t set him really apart yet. As for the Ronald Reagan comparisons, the same can be said for all those wannabes over the years who were ‘Kennedy-esque’ — a candidate just loses out going down that road. So color me skeptical and watch for the Freddie Fizzle.”

But Mr. Thompson”s late entry has generated interest among some conservatives unsatisfied with the eight major candidates already in the race.

“If the choice for 2008 is Giuliani, Romney or Thompson, I have to go with Thompson, and most Republican primary voters will back him,” Richard J. Bishirjian, a conservative activist and president of Yorktown University in Denver.

“His name recognition will carry him with independents in the general election. He’s the conservatives’ best bet.”

Skeptics say influential conservatives will not warm to him, charging that he failed to impress when given the opportunity as leader of the Senate “China-gate” hearings during the administration of President Clinton. His embrace of the McCain-Feingold campaign-finance restrictions, viewed by conservatives and liberals alike as an assault on the First Amendment, has hurt him the most.

“He may not have taken many positions that will be subject to open attack, but neither has his record produced any real bragging rights,” said American Conservative Union Chairman David A. Keene.

“The way in which he’s tried to handle the conservative criticism of his role in passing the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform legislation while he was in the Senate, however, does not make one feel particularly sanguine about his chances.”