Hopes fade for climate treaty

BARCELONA | Negotiators and diplomats were working Thursday on a scaled-back version of a global climate change treaty that could be agreed by next month’s deadline.

The idea of forging a political agreement, instead of a legally binding treaty, was becoming a more accepted possibility as negotiators acknowledged some nations, including the United States, would not be ready in time for the December U.N. climate conference in Copenhagen.

“People are more and more talking about a framework, a framework that you clarify further in the following months,” said Artur Runge-Metzger, chief delegate from the European Commission.

European officials said they envisioned a political accord emerging from Copenhagen enshrining plans by developed countries to cut carbon emissions and by emerging economies to trim back the growth of their emissions. It also would include specific numbers on how much money wealthy countries would channel to the poor to combat the effects of climate change.

The success of Copenhagen now “depends very much on President Obama himself, on … whether he can put numbers on the table or not,” Mr. Runge-Metzger said.

Such a political deal would not be legally binding, but would carry the authority of world leaders who would come to the Danish capital to sign off on it. Negotiations would continue for several months and possibly one year until a legally binding treaty was ready, the officials said on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the ongoing talks.

“We as the EU will certainly push and push and push to get a real legal outcome,” Mr. Runge-Metzger said, adding that the Copenhagen agreement should “definitely … have a timetable” for negotiating a full treaty.

Even an interim deal would clear the way to mobilize funds to help poor countries. The European Union has said $7.4 billion to $10.4 billion will be needed over the next three years for developing nations to begin planning their first steps toward controlling their emissions and protecting themselves against the effects of climate change.

Yvo de Boer, the top U.N. climate official who oversees the negotiations, said any decision emerging from Copenhagen that is accepted by all 192 countries would be “morally binding” even without formal legal status.

The United States - the only industrialized nation to reject previous climate deals - pledged to be a leader in climate change policy after Mr. Obama took office. U.S. climate legislation was bogged down this week, however, as a group of conservative Republican senators demanded more cost-analysis of the bill, which calls for cutting greenhouse gas emissions from power plants and factories by 83 percent by 2050.

Nations had hoped to conclude a new climate treaty at Copenhagen to succeed the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which called on 37 industrial countries to reduce emissions of heat-raising gases by an average 5 percent below 1990 levels by 2012. The United States rejected it because it made no demands on major developing countries such as India and China.

At the U.N. talks in Spain, lobby groups and delegations were showing frustration with the scaling back of ambitions.

“We are completely dismayed by the shuffling of feet and sliding backward of the developed countries,” said Raman Mehta, program manager in India for global anti-poverty agency ActionAid.