- The Washington Times - Monday, July 13, 2015

Real estate mogul Donald Trump’s stock is on the rise in another poll on the 2016 Republican presidential field, with support for Mr. Trump jumping more than 10 points from last month, putting him in second place behind former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

Mr. Bush was in first at 15 percent in the Monmouth University poll out Monday, followed by Mr. Trump at 13 percent and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas at 9 percent.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who officially jumped into the race on Monday, was in a tie with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 7 percent, followed by Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky at 6 percent apiece.

“The biggest poll bump over the past few weeks has been for Donald Trump. But you’ve got to wonder if his support has already plateaued since many Republican voters don’t view him as a serious candidate,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

About 4 in 10 GOP voters said Mr. Trump, whose comments about Mexico and immigrants have come under fire from Democrats and Republicans alike, was in the race more for the publicity than to make a serious run for the office. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was next in that category, named by 9 percent.

Still, Mr. Trump’s favorable numbers have increased sharply from Monmouth’s June poll, where he was sitting at a 20 percent favorable/55 percent unfavorable split. He is now at a marginally negative 40 percent/41 percent favorable/unfavorable split, propelled by a surge among tea party supporters.


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“It looks like tea party voters are really responding to Trump’s aggressive illegal immigrant message,” Mr. Murray said.

Both Mr. Bush and Mr. Trump have seen their numbers increase since a Monmouth poll taken in June before the two men formally declared their respective candidacies. Support for Mr. Bush increased 6 points, from 9 percent, and Mr. Trump’s support jumped 11 points, from 2 percent.

Support for Mr. Cruz also jumped by 4 points from 5 percent in June, while support for Mr. Carson dropped 5 points from 11 percent.

Mr. Bush’s favorable ratings among GOP voters also improved; he’s at a 50 percent favorable/30 percent unfavorable split now, compared to a 40 percent favorable/35 percent unfavorable split in June. That puts him about back where he was in April. He is still viewed with a wary eye by some conservatives.

No other candidate or potential candidate was above 2 percent, and 18 percent of GOP voters said they were unsure.

Mr. Rubio and Mr. Huckabee were the only candidates who had overall favorable ratings north of 50 percent, with Mr. Rubio at a 53 percent/19 percent favorable/unfavorable split and Mr. Huckabee at a 53 percent/23 percent split.

The survey of 1,001 U.S. adults was conducted from July 9-12, and a subsample of 336 registered voters identifying as Republicans or leaning Republican had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.4 percent.

Real estate mogul Donald Trump’s stock is on the rise in another poll on the 2016 Republican presidential field, with support for Mr. Trump jumping more than 10 points from last month, putting him in second place behind former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

Mr. Bush was in first at 15 percent in the Monmouth University poll out Monday, followed by Mr. Trump at 13 percent and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas at 9 percent.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who officially jumped into the race on Monday, was in a tie with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 7 percent, followed by Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky at 6 percent apiece.

“The biggest poll bump over the past few weeks has been for Donald Trump. But you’ve got to wonder if his support has already plateaued since many Republican voters don’t view him as a serious candidate,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

About 4 in 10 GOP voters said Mr. Trump, whose comments about Mexico and immigrants have come under fire from Democrats and Republicans alike, was in the race more for the publicity than to make a serious run for the office. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was next in that category, named by 9 percent.

Still, Mr. Trump’s favorable numbers have increased sharply from Monmouth’s June poll, where he was sitting at a 20 percent favorable/55 percent unfavorable split. He is now at a marginally negative 40 percent/41 percent favorable/unfavorable split, propelled by a surge among tea party supporters.

“It looks like tea party voters are really responding to Trump’s aggressive illegal immigrant message,” Mr. Murray said.

Both Mr. Bush and Mr. Trump have seen their numbers increase since a Monmouth poll taken in June before the two men formally declared their respective candidacies. Support for Mr. Bush increased 6 points, from 9 percent, and Mr. Trump’s support jumped 11 points, from 2 percent.

Support for Mr. Cruz also jumped by 4 points from 5 percent in June, while support for Mr. Carson dropped 5 points from 11 percent.

Mr. Bush’s favorable ratings among GOP voters also improved; he’s at a 50 percent favorable/30 percent unfavorable split now, compared to a 40 percent favorable/35 percent unfavorable split in June. That puts him about back where he was in April. He is still viewed with a wary eye by some conservatives.

No other candidate or potential candidate was above 2 percent, and 18 percent of GOP voters said they were unsure.

Mr. Rubio and Mr. Huckabee were the only candidates who had overall favorable ratings north of 50 percent, with Mr. Rubio at a 53 percent/19 percent favorable/unfavorable split and Mr. Huckabee at a 53 percent/23 percent split.

The survey of 1,001 U.S. adults was conducted from July 9-12, and a subsample of 336 registered voters identifying as Republicans or leaning Republican had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.4 percent.

 

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