OPINION:
What a difference a week makes in politics.
On July 17, I wrote about the turmoil among Democrats in the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary. State Rep. Francesca Hong, a full-blown democratic socialist, is still the front-runner, but things blew up by the end of the week.
Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez dropped out of the race. I wrote last week about her disastrous press conference after she fired her campaign manager over major financial shortcomings.
However, the lack of cash on hand weeks from the primary election is the real reason she exited the race. Most of us knew her campaign was finished but figured she would hang on a bit longer. She did not.
Over the weekend, we learned why. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who had previously dropped out of the race and endorsed Ms. Rodriguez, reentered the race with the endorsement of Gov. Tony Evers.
Talk about a soap opera.
Wisconsin Democrats seem to be in a full-scale meltdown over the prospect of nominating an angry socialist in the closest swing state in the country. Equally amazing is that the governor refused to endorse his current lieutenant governor and then skipped over his first-term lieutenant governor (Mandela Barnes, who served from 2019 to 2023) to endorse the county executive.
A casual observer might think this happened because Mr. Crowley had a large amount of money on hand or was doing well in the polls. Neither is true.
At the time, Mr. Barnes was consistently polling second and, according to the July continuing campaign finance reports, was in a strong fundraising position alongside Ms. Hong.
It seems that Mr. Evers and the rest of the liberal establishment do not believe Ms. Hong can win. They appear to hope that donors will infuse the Crowley campaign with enough cash to get the county executive over the finish line in time for the primary.
Not to be outdone, the Hong campaign began running ads on commercial TV attacking Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany and spelling out Ms. Hong’s agenda to tax the rich, fund government schools and stop data centers. The ads do not discuss Ms. Hong’s radical agenda to defund the police, eliminate prisons or have the government take over private businesses.
Some suggest that these ads reflect a pivot to the general election. Perhaps, but they also address a major issue for voters in the primary: Can Ms. Hong defeat Mr. Tiffany? So far, the race looks close.
In the latest Marquette University Law School Poll — released this week and conducted July 8-16, while Mr. Crowley’s campaign was suspended, meaning his name did not appear — Ms. Hong leads at 26%. She is followed by Mr. Barnes at 15% and Ms. Rodriguez, who has since withdrawn from the race, at 11%.
Most important, 45% of primary voters are undecided.
The poll shows that liberals are overwhelmingly with Ms. Hong, and they are a growing part of the Wisconsin Democratic voting base.
When examining second choices among Lt. Gov. Rodriguez’s supporters, the Marquette University Law School Poll showed former Department of Administration Secretary Joel Brennan at 29%, Mr. Barnes at 28% and Ms. Hong at 12%.
Winning elections in Wisconsin usually comes with the slimmest of margins. Even if Democrats nominate an angry socialist, the race will begin almost dead even in the general election. Trump derangement syndrome, particularly in the suburbs of Milwaukee, will drive a strong turnout on the left.
If Democrats nominate Mr. Crowley, the race is likely to be very tight. Most of Wisconsin rightly believes that Milwaukee is a mess. Mr. Crowley made a series of missteps while raising taxes in Milwaukee County.
A small group of swing voters is likely to determine the winner, yet again, in Wisconsin. The Tiffany camp would be wise to characterize its efforts as common sense rather than crazy.
If Ms. Hong is the candidate, the Tiffany camp should use clips of her screaming profanity at events, as well as similar clips of Mr. Barnes.
If Mr. Crowley wins the primary, Mr. Tiffany should make him own every problem in Milwaukee.
Regardless of the candidate, Democrats will attack Mr. Tiffany for his connections to President Trump. They are betting that undecided voters will swing back their way in November.
Overall, this week reinforced the phrase, “Just when you thought it couldn’t get crazier, it did.” The Wisconsin race for governor this year will be extremely close, and the outcome will likely affect who becomes president in 2028.
• Scott Walker is a columnist for The Washington Times. He was the 45th governor of Wisconsin and launched a bid for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. He lives in Milwaukee and is the proud owner of a 2003 Harley-Davidson Road King. He can be reached at swalker@washingtontimes.com.
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