- The Washington Times - Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Presumptive GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump has a 2-point lead over Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton in North Carolina, according to a poll released Wednesday that showed Republicans in the state gravitating toward Mr. Trump compared to a few months ago.

Mr. Trump had a 43 percent to 41 percent edge over Mrs. Clinton, according to the survey from the Democratic-leaning firm Public Policy Polling.

Libertarian White House hopeful Gary Johnson was at 3 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein was at 2 percent in the poll.

Mrs. Clinton had led Mr. Trump by 2 points in the state in a PPP poll in March, and the movement toward Mr. Trump in the new survey was in large part due to increased GOP support.

In the survey released Wednesday, Mr. Trump had a 76-point, 81 percent to 5 percent lead among Republicans. In March, Mr. Trump had held a smaller, though still sizable, 63-point, 73 percent to 10 percent lead among Republicans.

Mr. Trump’s win in Indiana on May 3 chased Sen. Ted Cruz from the GOP race that night and Ohio Gov. John Kasich left the race a day later, leaving Mr. Trump as the only Republican candidate still actively campaigning for the party’s nomination.

Mr. Trump had an 18-point, 45 percent to 27 percent lead among independents in the new survey, compared to a 17-point, 49 percent to 32 percent lead in March.

Mrs. Clinton, meanwhile, had a 79 percent to 12 percent advantage among Democrats, compared to a 79 percent to 13 percent edge in March.

Sen. Bernard Sanders held a 3-point, 43 percent to 40 percent lead over Mr. Trump in the new survey, with Mr. Johnson at 3 percent and Ms. Stein at 2 percent.

Some pundits and anti-Trump Republicans have predicted that the GOP’s nominating Mr. Trump could lead to a landslide victory for Democrats in the fall.

Mr. Cruz had warned that if Mr. Trump got the GOP nomination, Republicans would be looking at an electoral “bloodbath” along the lines of former President Ronald Reagan’s landslide 1984 win over Democrat Walter Mondale.

But in five of six recent PPP polls, the margins are comparable to final results from the 2012 presidential race.

For example, 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney carried North Carolina by about 2 points. Mr. Romney also carried West Virginia by about 27 points, and a recent survey put Mr. Trump up 27 points there.

President Obama, meanwhile, won New Mexico by about 10 points in 2012, and Mrs. Clinton held an 8-point lead there in a recent survey. Mr. Obama won Ohio by about 3 points, and Mrs. Clinton held a 3-point lead there in a recent poll.

And Mr. Obama won the popular vote in 2012 by about 4 points - the same edge Mrs. Clinton held in a recent national PPP survey.

In Arizona, which Mr. Romney won by about 10 points in 2012, Mr. Trump held a narrower 2-point lead in a recent PPP poll. But analysis from the firm on Wednesday projected that Republican voters on the fence would eventually come home to Mr. Trump there to give him a bigger advantage.

Sign up for Daily Newsletters

Manage Newsletters

Copyright © 2021 The Washington Times, LLC. Click here for reprint permission.

Please read our comment policy before commenting.


Click to Read More and View Comments

Click to Hide