OPINION:
What do the election years 1800, 1828, 1860, 1896, 1932 and 1980 have in political common? They are usually described as “critical” or “realigning” elections by historians who argue they produced a significant realignment in our political system.
Political scientist James Wilson wrote that “an electoral realignment occurs when a new issue of utmost importance cuts across existing party divisions and replaces old issues that had formerly been the basis of party identification.”
So, what about 2016 — is it a realigning election? We know from history that realignment occurs when:
• There is a major crisis like a war or a depression.
• Significant demographic shifts take place.
• A major political party becomes seriously weakened.
• New political leadership with new ideas comes to the fore.
• A less crucial precondition is a good showing by third parties, attesting to the weakness of the existing parties.
Following the 1800 election, the defeated Federalists disappeared to be succeeded by the Whigs. Andrew Jackson’s decisive 1828 presidential victory gave rise to a two-party system and two decades of Democratic dominance.
By 1860, the Whig Party had collapsed, and the succeeding Republicans under Abraham Lincoln won the presidency. For nearly 40 years following the Civil War Republicans dominated national as well as state elections. In 1896, Republican William McKinley handily defeated Democrat William Jennings Bryan and his populist crusade.
In 1932, the Democrats under the progressive Franklin D. Roosevelt swept the presidency, both houses of Congress and the governorships. From 1932 through 1964, the Democrats won seven of nine presidential elections.
Nearly 50 years after FDR won the first of four presidential elections, the Republicans under conservative Ronald Reagan successfully challenged the Democrats, preparing the way for three consecutive presidential victories in 1980, 1984 and 1988, and the historic congressional gains of 1994.
Will 2016 be another realignment election? Let’s review our criteria.
One, are we in the midst of a crisis like a war or a depression? Does Iraq or Afghanistan qualify as a “major” war? Have we truly recovered from the Great Depression of 2008? I think it’s fair to say that no major crisis confronts the nation, although Islamic terrorism has the potential to become one.
Two, is either or both of our major political parties in a seriously weakened state? Do they appear to be ready for retirement or interment? In the early stages of Trumpism, the Republican Party was said to be in danger of disappearing if he were elected. As the presidential race has tightened, there is less apocalyptic talk about the certain demise of the Republican Party.
Three, have significant demographic shifts occurred? Is America on track, as some have argued, to become the most ethnically and racially diverse nation in the world? Unquestionably, there have been historic demographic changes over the last several decades with the massive influx of Latinos and Asians and a declining majority of white Americans.
Four, has new leadership appeared in either major party? In fact, new leaders and new ideas have emerged in both parties, albeit in the person of septuagenarians Donald Trump, the populist, and Bernard Sanders, the socialist.
Fifth, has a third party muscled its way into the presidential race? After initially reaching 10 percent in some polls, the Libertarian Party’s candidates have settled at around 8 percent, far below Ross Perot’s impressive 19 percent showing in 1992.
As of today, then, only two of five necessary conditions for realignment are present, not including the most important — a strategic or economic crisis. That fact, coupled with the extreme closeness of the Clinton-Trump contest, suggests that 2016 is not yet a critical or realigning election.
However, if through a series of presently unforeseen political events, either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump should win in a landslide — electoral or popular — America is likely to experience a political earthquake on a scale of 7.0.
• Lee Edwards is a Distinguished Fellow at the Heritage Foundation and has published 25 books about modern American politics.
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