Democrats closed a gap but Republican firewalls held

OPINION:

While important, the big political trends at the national level from last week have now been discussed ad nauseam for everyone outside of America’s most ardent politicos. However, an important piece of the 2018 election story comes from America’s 50 “laboratories of democracy,” and it has not been sufficiently told.

While the control of Congress is often decided by several dozen competitive seats, there are 7,383 state legislative seats in America’s state capitals and the vast majority of them were recently decided by voters. Additionally, the voting public decided the fate of a significant number of ballot measures across the states on important pocketbook issues, such as taxes and budgets.

Currently, it appears that Democrats have taken governing control away from Republicans in the Colorado Senate, Maine Senate, Minnesota House and both the New Hampshire Senate and House. Beyond that, the New York Senate, which was formerly controlled by a coalition of independent Democrats and Republicans, has fully flipped toward the Democrats. Finally, the Connecticut Senate went from a numeric tie, with a tie breaker from the Democratic lieutenant governor, to full Democratic control. However, given the national winds at the backs of Democrats in this first midterm of the Trump administration, these limited gains were certainly a disappointment for the left.

Any rational analysis would have predicted Democrats sweeping into power in many state legislative races, given the GOP’s massive majorities in state legislative chambers after the 2014 and 2016 cycles, and the significant thinning of Democratic legislative ranks during the Obama years. In fact, after the 2016 cycle, the GOP controlled nearly 70 percent of all state legislative chambers in the nation.

However, the hyped big blue wave never really materialized at the state legislative level. Republican firewalls held in key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona and Florida. At risk of adding insult to injury for the left, free market Republicans appear to have picked up full control of the Alaska House, after a coalition of Democrats and big government Republicans nearly gave Alaska a state income tax in the past two years.

Apart from the political lens, numerous ballot measures decided by voters at the state level brought good news for taxpayers. Many of the decisions on ballot measures were clearly made by strong, bipartisan majorities. While state ballot initiatives generally fly under the radar, they many times have more direct impact on the lives of taxpayers than some of the highly-publicized horse races.

A brief recap of some of the most consequential fiscal-policy related ballot measures reveals some very positive news for taxpayers. Started long ago by Gov. Mike Pence and legislators, Indiana voters overwhelmingly passed a strong balanced-budget amendment to their state constitution. Voters in North Carolina passed a measure to reduce the state income tax cap. Importantly, this comes on the heels of North Carolina’s historic tax reform that fundamentally enhanced the state’s economic competitiveness over the decade. The state’s economic outlook has improved from 26th to 7th in the Rich States, Poor States: ALEC-Laffer State Economic Competitiveness Index.

One of the most important wins for taxpayers was in Florida, where voters overwhelmingly approved a constitutional measure that will require a supermajority vote in the legislature before any taxes are raised in the future. It was a smart move for the Sunshine State to lock in decades of fiscal prudence — including their avoidance of a state income tax.

One of the most damaging tax increase proposals, a proposal to create the first state-level carbon tax, suffered huge defeat in Washington state. Additionally, voters in Colorado rejected a proposal that would have eliminated the state’s flat personal income tax and allowed for a “progressive” income tax. Likewise, voters in Maine rejected a massive payroll tax increase. Gasoline tax increases did not fare well with the electorate this year, as voters in several states said no when asked to pay more at the pump. Finally, proposals to increase taxes on cigarettes went up in smoke, as Montana and South Dakota voters rejected those efforts. Impressively, these pro-taxpayer victories at the ballot box were driven in many cases by voters of both political parties, who said the solution to policy problems is not government taking more from hard-working taxpayers.

While most of the media attention in the last week has been focused on federal election results, many of the elections across statehouses and on state ballot measures decided at the ballot box will have a long-lasting impact on hard-working taxpayers across the nation.

• Jonathan Williams is the chief economist and vice president for the Center for State Fiscal Reform at the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC).