A new CBS News poll showed Democratic presidential nominee Joseph R. Biden leading President Trump in two states the Republican incumbent won four years ago — Arizona and Wisconsin.
Mr. Biden holds a 3 percentage point lead in Arizona, 50%-47%, which is within the poll’s 4.1% margin of error. In Wisconsin, Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump 51%-46%, with a 3.5% margin of error.
“We see a big lead for Joe Biden among ballots that have already been cast in both Arizona and Wisconsin,” said Anthony Salvanto, CBS News elections & surveys director, on CBS’ “Face The Nation.” “I suspect when we get to election night we may say that Joe Biden has a lead on ballots that have been cast already and then it’s a question of how many of the president’s supporters will turn up on Election Day to try to put him over the top.”
The big lead Mr. Salvanto identified in ballots already cast refers to the poll’s respondents who said they had already voted, not an actual ballot count from government officials.
“We asked people what do you want politics in the next four years to be like? And of the things that they said, well the folks who said that they wanted it to be exciting, well in these states the president has a slight lead,” Mr. Salvanto said on Face The Nation. “For those who said they wanted politics in the next four years to be calm, Joe Biden has a large lead. The trouble for the president and the advantage for Joe Biden is that more people told us that they wanted things to be calm.”
The CBS News surveys were conducted by YouGov from Oct. 13-16 among 1,087 registered voters in Arizona and 1,124 registered voters in Wisconsin.