Some reliable national polls have the presidential race tightening, but not the Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey released over the weekend and celebrated by liberals.
The poll found that Joseph R. Biden has leaped to a 14 point lead, post-debate, four weeks before election day over President Trump.
If the number sounded familiar, it was. That is the exact spread the WSJ/NBC poll found four weeks before the Nov. 8, 2016 presidential election. It said Hillary Clinton held a 14-point lead.
She won the popular vote by 2 percent.
Conservatives reject the WSJ/NBC poll because they say the voter sample contains too many people who identify as Democrats–––45 percent––compared with Republicans––36 percent.
The 2016 actual turnout was 38 percent Democrats; 34 percent Republicans; and 28 percent independents, according to pollster John Zogby.
That is the science of polling: take party identification provided by respondents and mold a turnout model.
Here are other after-debate polls that show a much tighter race.
* John Zogby Strategies-EMI Research Solutions Poll online poll of 1006 likely voters found Biden with a 2 point lead, 49-47. Biden had held a 6 point in Zogby’s previous survey. Mr. Zogby’s party split was the 2016 election: 38 percent Democrats and 34 percent Republicans.
* The Sunday Express/Democracy Institute survey has Mr. Trump with a one-point lead, 46-45 among 1,500 likely voters. Its sample is 37 percent Democrats and 35 percent Republicans.
Both Zogby and Democracy Institute put Mr. Trump’s job approval at 50 percent.
* Emerson University poll pegged Mr. Biden with a 7 point lead, 52-45.
* Investors Business Daily/TIPP poll puts Mr. Biden ahead, 49-46, among 1,021 likely voters, for which the party split is about even.
TIPP’s numbers should be watched closely. It will soon begin a daily tracking poll.
In 2016, it had Mrs. Clinton with a 2 point lead with four weeks to go, a far tighter race than the WSJ/NBC lead of 14 points that year.
TIPP turned out to be right. It had Mrs. Clinton up 1 point right before Election Day.
Mr. Trump won the presidency by winning the Electoral College.