Against the expectations of pollsters, pundits and politicians from both major parties, President Biden escaped the kind of midterm election thumping that rocked his two immediate Democratic predecessors.
In 1994, Republicans won 54 House seats as President Clinton’s first term got off to a dismal start. In 2010, Republicans swept 61 seats in the House as the Tea Party rose in opposition to President Obama. Democratic presidents were, of course, not alone in experiencing steep midterm losses. In 2006, President George W. Bush watched Democrats take back both houses of Congress in a backlash to his administration’s handling of the Iraq war and Hurricane Katrina.
But Mr. Biden, despite low public approval ratings and a general sense that the country is headed in the wrong direction, survived with his party in control of the Senate, although the GOP appears headed to a slim House majority. Still, the expected red wave never materialized. And if there were one big loser from election night, it might be the man whose name didn’t appear on any state or federal ballots: Former President Donald J. Trump.
In this episode of History As It Happens, political journalist and Eyes on the Right substack writer Damon Linker discusses whether the Republican Party’s disappointing showing is a sign that Trumpism is waning. Throughout American history, populist movements have waxed and waned, usually after an election cycle or two. But Mr. Linker says Mr. Trump remains the most influential Republican in the country, the midterm results notwithstanding. Indeed, Mr. Trump is expected to announce his candidacy for president during a speech scheduled for Tuesday night.
“The question about the future is which of these factors [of Trump’s appeal] will be decisive. Does it have to be all of them? If they do all have to be there, then Trump is the only person who is really going to make the Republican base happy,” said Mr. Linker, who sees four factors behind Mr. Trump’s appeal: 1) policy, i.e. immigration restriction and free trade skepticism; 2) bellicosity, or willingness to attack the Republican establishment; 3) the vulgarity factor, meaning Mr. Trump observes no boundaries in insulting his critics; and 4) a conspiratorial mindset.
Listen to Mr. Linker discuss the future of Trump and right-wing populism by downloading this episode of History As It Happens.
