More than 900 days into the worst European war since 1945, Ukraine is for the first time capturing a significant chunk of Russian territory with its surprise attack into Kursk. Meanwhile, in the Donbas, Russian forces are closing in on the vital transport hub of Pokrovsk.
In a narrow sense, these developments may seem to indicate important shifts in the war’s momentum. Seen from 50,000 feet, however, the front lines haven’t budged much over the past two years, and a negotiated settlement appears unlikely any time soon. Russia and Ukraine will therefore continue to bludgeon one another on the battlefield, even as Ukraine faces a potentially acute shortage of manpower.
In this episode of History As It Happens, Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft analyzes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s peace plan — a plan whose details are largely unclear. With the Ukrainian gains in Kursk, Mr. Zelenskyy hopes to gain leverage in any peace talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has shown little desire to end hostilities.
What will it take to get Mr. Putin to the negotiating table? “It’s the usual business of sticks and carrots,” said Mr. Lieven, who directs the institute’s Eurasia Program.
“The stick is that Russia has suffered very badly. Basically the whole army with which Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 has been destroyed in terms of casualties and equipment. Russian military prestige has been shredded… If Russia were to aim for a complete victory, or even perhaps a much bigger victory including the capture of really big cities like Kharkiv, you probably need much greater conscription and mobilization in Russia and much higher taxes. That would not be popular,” Mr. Lieven said as to why Mr. Putin could be persuaded to seek a negotiated settlement rather than escalate the war further.
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“Putin has done his utmost to avoid this. Russia has mobilized a fraction of its available manpower because he knows there would be a popular backlash.”
As for Mr. Zelenskyy, the precise details of his peace plan, which he intends to share with the Biden administration as well as both candidates for president, remain under wraps. However, Mr. Lieven says the foray into Kursk indicates Mr. Zelenskyy will be willing to negotiate a possible withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukrainian territory rather than seeking an outright military victory.
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