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China is rapidly building up space warfare capabilities and, by 2040, will be conducting low-level warfare powered by advanced technology aimed at weakening the United States, according to a new Space Force report.
The report, “Future Operating Environment 2040,” was made public earlier this month. It describes a dark vision of conflict with Beijing below the level of declared war in the next 14 years.
“By 2040, the operating environment is marked by ongoing, hard-to-detect competition below the level of declared war,” the report stated. “The line between peace and conflict has become unclear amid continuous electromagnetic activity, cyberoperations, and covert interference in orbital regimes.”
A major war with China or Russia is not expected by that date, but the report said a long-term conflict in space and other warfighting domains will be underway, comparing the upcoming period to the years before the outbreak of World War I in 1914.
Chinese military investments in space capabilities will support “informatized” and “intelligentized” warfare, said the report, using Beijing’s term for advanced combat capabilities.
The report noted that 2040 is China’s declared goal date for achieving space power parity with the U.S.
China believes space power is vital for the People’s Liberation Army’s joint strike operations, blockades, border wars and air defenses.
Asked about the report’s future conflict scenarios, Gen. Chance Saltzman, chief of space operations, said the report is not an intelligence assessment but uses declarative statements to raise questions and inspire debate.
“It is just one vision, one conceptualization of what the future could be. We based it on some trend analysis. … ‘This [is] what could happen.’ How are we going to adjust?” he told reporters Tuesday at the Space Symposium in Colorado Springs, Colorado.
According to the report, China is developing advanced military and dual-use civilian-military know-how and will field directed-energy weapons, artificial-intelligence-powered arms, brain-computer interface capabilities and “metamaterials,” which are artificially engineered structures designed to control light, sound and electromagnetic waves in ways not found in nature.
The Space Force predicts that space wars will be defined as “unrestricted spectrum warfare” that extends beyond the physical domain into digital and cognitive domains.
Similar to Germany’s unrestricted submarine warfare and the U.S. campaign against Japan in World War II, no-limits warfare in space and electronic domains will be a significant threat to the U.S.
“Like previous submarine campaigns, we project [unrestricted spectrum warfare] in 2040 will mean that every frequency, signal, and orbital regime is contested terrain, and both military and civilian space infrastructure are targets,” the report said.
“Attacks on space services are likely to occur without warning, with potentially devastating consequences for the populations they support,” it said.
U.S. space weapons and power will remain significant but will become “brittle” as a result of interference from China and other adversaries.
Tools and weapons used against U.S. space assets will include electronic spoofing, deceptive signaling, occasional outages, delays in space launches, on-orbit maneuvers from unclear signals, targeted coercion and “cyber-enabled intimidation of personnel and families,” the report said.
“The People’s Republic of China emphasizes speed, scale, and resilience by using distributed architectures,” the report said. It noted the Chinese military’s use of stratospheric systems such as high-altitude balloons and drones, low-profile nanosatellite swarms, and relays operating in the space between Earth and the moon.
China also will employ sophisticated “gray zone” warfare, such as electronic jamming of satellites that appears as natural interference, spoofing disguised as routine communication errors, and supply chain disruptions.
All the methods will gradually weaken U.S. capability, the report said.
China’s low-level warfare against rival Taiwan in 2040 will produce military operational fatigue and economic friction rather than large-scale military strikes, the report said.
Geopolitically, China will seek to become the center of the global system by 2040, setting rules and norms from its communist system for Earth and space, the report said.
Chinese leaders view the mid-21st century as a historic window of opportunity, linked to the centenary of Chinese Communist Party rule, the report said.
The goal is for China to become a technology superpower by the early 2030s and then establish “full-spectrum dominance or parity by 2049,” the report said.
PLA planners are building forces for space operations that will include combat and deterrence systems, the report said.
“This will manifest through threats and demonstrations, followed by a careful escalation in the precise application of force, all backed up by formidable space forces capable of ‘zhenshe daji,’ or ‘overawing space attack,’” the report said.
Chinese space warfare will include its current arsenal of counterspace weapons: anti-satellite missiles, directed-energy weapons and killer robot satellites.
PLA forces will be powered by advanced intelligence, sensor and communications systems in space, along with high-speed decision-making tools and maneuvering satellites, the report said.
Advanced Chinese space technology threats in 2040 will include “never before harnessed” asymmetric warfare tools, the report said.
All will leverage AI, brain-computer interfaces and materials science, including metamaterials that the PLA will use to create “invisibility cloaks” for satellites, the report said.
The report also said China is building a vast, AI-based platform dubbed “Supermind” to track and recruit millions of scientists and researchers worldwide.
To enhance its brain-computer military capabilities, the PLA is investing heavily in technologies that enable direct neural links between military operators and robotic space systems.
“This can dramatically compress decision cycles from minutes to milliseconds while allowing single operators to manage vast constellations of satellites, weapons platforms, and sensor networks,” the report said.
The PLA plans to use brain-computer links and AI to conduct complex, multidomain operations as part of its unrestricted spectrum warfare, “potentially adapting faster than current U.S. [military decision-making] loops,” the report said.
Directed-energy guns will be supercharged by AI-enabled targeting, miniaturized emitters and algorithmic modulation, the report said.
Advanced technologies under development include quantum radar that will use single photons instead of classical electromagnetic waves to bolster electronic warfare and target satellites.
Spacecraft that release swarms of microsatellites and nuclear space propulsion also will enhance PLA space war power, the report said.
High-altitude balloons, drones and airships operating at 60,000 feet to 120,000 feet pose a threat to U.S. space control and provide the PLA with “unique strike options,” the report said.
The report said Russian low-level space warfare in the coming decades will employ maneuvering robot satellites, mobile jammers and hidden “sleeper” satellites that activate at unexpected times.
“Repeated ‘accidents,’ falsified ephemerides [data used in celestial navigation], and escalatory nuclear signals make it hard to attribute actions and manage crises,” the report said.
In Europe, governments will operate amid sabotaged infrastructure and uncertainty about U.S. deterrence in space and cyberspace.
“The overall effect is a prolonged competition marked by cumulative losses rather than decisive battles,” the report said. “Every informational advantage introduces reciprocal vulnerabilities, and defensive adjustments create new attack surfaces.”
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