OPINION:
A memo containing a certain amount of hyperventilating, hand-wringing and pearl-clutching about the Senate race in Ohio recently emerged from the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
The NRSC is apparently concerned that its preferred candidate, Republican incumbent Jon Husted, is at risk of losing to former Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat.
The concern is legitimate. Mr. Husted has been running no better than even in public and private surveys in a state that President Trump won by 11 percentage points just 21 short months ago.
What happened? Why is the race in red Ohio in jeopardy?
According to the parts of the NRSC memo that have been made public, the problem is that Mr. Husted is insufficiently opposed to data centers and that Mr. Brown has seized on this carelessness to drive Mr. Husted from the field.
The memo is direct and tangy: “More than any other thing in this race, data centers are the anchor hanging around Husted’s neck.” Anything else? “Our polling indicates” that [data centers] are the “sleeper issue for the entire election cycle.”
It is important to note that those surveys have not been shared, at least not with the general public, so we have no way of assessing their quality or probity. It does, however, sound bad.
Before we rearrange the intellectual furniture of the Republican Party, maybe we should look at other issues that might be affecting the campaign.
The most recent public survey in the Senate campaign comes courtesy of Fox News, which several weeks ago asked 1,000 registered voters (surveys of likely voters are better, but still) a variety of questions about the campaign. The survey concluded that 40% of respondents were primarily driven by concerns about inflation (read “gas prices”), while the remainder had chief concerns about healthcare, immigration and political divisions.
The survey also indicated that about two-thirds of independents were prepared to vote for Mr. Brown. That is not a good sign.
In all, by an 8-point margin, survey respondents supported Mr. Brown over Mr. Husted. That margin is larger among those more likely to vote.
These results largely confirm the work of one of the president’s own pollsters, Tony Fabrizio, who concluded way back in June that Mr. Husted was trailing by 3 points (within the margin of error). Then, as now, the top issues were the economy (44%), taxes, threats to democracy, immigration, healthcare, etc.
Data centers were not included in the list read to respondents in June, nor did respondents volunteer them as among the most important issues.
It is not just Ohio.
In a survey conducted in the middle of August of 1,200 registered voters in Texas, when asked to select the most important problem facing this country from a list that included “artificial intelligence,” about 20% said inflation, 17% said the economy and 17% said political corruption. Just 1% said artificial intelligence.
In comparison, more than half of the respondents in Texas indicated they are “very concerned” about “the price of food and consumer goods” (67%), “the cost of healthcare” (64%), “the price of gasoline and energy” (59%) and “the cost of housing” (55%).
More than half (54%) said the economy is worse than it was a year ago; only 24% said it is better. While 23% think they are better off than a year ago, 42% think they are doing worse.
We could do this sort of thing for pretty much every state (certainly every state that has a statewide election this cycle). The economic news is mostly bad, no matter which direction you look.
Not surprisingly, the incumbent party — the Republicans — is experiencing rough sledding in places such as Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Texas and, yes, Ohio. The NRSC memo, at least as reported, is an understandable effort to divert attention to something else — in this case, the data center crew’s difficulty in crafting a winning message.
Still, the idea that data centers are a top-tier issue that will drive campaigns is nonsense. Voters are more concerned — much more concerned — about the economy, gas prices and the conflict with Iran. These are all things that actually affect their lives.
Rather than shifting attention away from the difficult challenges voters face, it might be better for the Republican Party to focus its efforts on economic issues, improve its policies and, in some cases, help improve its candidates.
• Michael McKenna is a contributing editor at The Washington Times.
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